[ColoradoTree]

By that point in the game, I think Reich would have a pretty good idea whether a tie would be enough, right?  No Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football in Week 17, and the only AFC game in the late afternoon window is Chargers @ Broncos, which wouldn't affect playoff seeding.  So, someone upstairs should be able to tell him if punting (and locking up the tie) is enough or not to get into the playoffs. If he's in that spot, I think he plays it differently. A loss means you're out, a win means you're in, and a tie means you're probably in. It's not the same as an early-season game where you're still trying to set the tone of your locker room. You do what it takes to make the playoffs. 

Great point. I was only idly mentioning the decision to go for a win vs. tie, but I'm sure you're right that the Colts will consider all scenarios. Hopefully it's a non-issue and the Colts play well enough to rest the starters in the 2nd half... Has any NFL team gone from a 1-5 start to reaching the playoffs? 

I need to conditionally correct myself. There is no Monday Night game in Week 17, and there was no Week 17 Sunday Night game last year, but I understand it remains possible that one of the Week 17 games could still be flexed to Sunday Night. If that's the case, then Colts @ Titans would be the only game with playoff implications for both teams, making it a likely candidate to be the last regular season game of the year. (Of course, in that scenario, Reich would know whether a tie is enough before kickoff, so it would work out the same way.)

Games with seeding implications only:
Jets @ Patriots
Raiders @ Chiefs
Panthers @ Saints
Jaguars @ Texans
49ers @ Rams
Chargers @ Broncos

Games with seeding implications and playoff implications:
Bears @ Vikings (though it seems like the Bears are pretty much locked into the 3 seed)

Games with playoff implications for one team:
Cowboys @ Giants
Bengals @ Steelers
Browns @ Ravens
Eagles @ Washington
Cardinals @ Seahawks

Games with no implications other than draft order:
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Lions @ Packers
Dolphins @ Bills

Given that batch of games, I can't imagine NBC passing up the chance to have an actual play-in game on Sunday Night Football. The Week 17 flex decision is the only one that can be made "on short rest," so to speak, so they can wait until the Sunday games are done to decide. (For the other weeks, they flex games on 12 days' notice.) If things play out as expected in Week 16--i.e., Tennessee beats Washington, Indianapolis beats the Giants, and either the Steelers or the Ravens lose this week (Pittsburgh is at New Orleans, and Baltimore is at the Chargers)--then I think Colts-Titans has to be the play.

[ColoradoTree]

By that point in the game, I think Reich would have a pretty good idea whether a tie would be enough, right?  No Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football in Week 17, and the only AFC game in the late afternoon window is Chargers @ Broncos, which wouldn't affect playoff seeding.  So, someone upstairs should be able to tell him if punting (and locking up the tie) is enough or not to get into the playoffs. If he's in that spot, I think he plays it differently. A loss means you're out, a win means you're in, and a tie means you're probably in. It's not the same as an early-season game where you're still trying to set the tone of your locker room. You do what it takes to make the playoffs. 

Great point. I was only idly mentioning the decision to go for a win vs. tie, but I'm sure you're right that the Colts will consider all scenarios. Hopefully it's a non-issue and the Colts play well enough to rest the starters in the 2nd half... Has any NFL team gone from a 1-5 start to reaching the playoffs? 

I need to conditionally correct myself. There is no Monday Night game in Week 17, and there was no Week 17 Sunday Night game last year, but I understand it remains possible that one of the Week 17 games could still be flexed to Sunday Night. If that's the case, then Colts @ Titans would be the only game with playoff implications for both teams, making it a likely candidate to be the last regular season game of the year. (Of course, in that scenario, Reich would know whether a tie is enough before kickoff, so it would work out the same way.)

Games with seeding implications only:
Jets @ Patriots
Raiders @ Chiefs
Panthers @ Saints
Jaguars @ Texans
49ers @ Rams
Chargers @ Broncos

Games with seeding implications and playoff implications:
Bears @ Vikings (though it seems like the Bears are pretty much locked into the 3 seed)

Games with playoff implications for one team:
Cowboys @ Giants
Bengals @ Steelers
Browns @ Ravens
Eagles @ Washington
Cardinals @ Seahawks

Games with no implications other than draft order:
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Lions @ Packers
Dolphins @ Bills

Given that batch of games, I can't imagine NBC passing up the chance to have an actual play-in game on Sunday Night Football. The Week 17 flex decision is the only one that can be made "on short rest," so to speak, so they can wait until the Sunday games are done to decide. (For the other weeks, they flex games on 12 days' notice.) If things play out as expected in Week 16--i.e., Tennessee beats Washington, Indianapolis beats the Giants, and either the Steelers or the Ravens lose this week (Pittsburgh is at New Orleans, and Baltimore is at the Chargers)--then I think Colts-Titans has to be the play.