01-02-2019, 05:07 PM
(01-02-2019, 04:13 PM)CTcard Wrote:(01-02-2019, 04:00 PM)BostonCard Wrote: I know that there may be some recency bias going on, and maybe this is just random fluctuation, and next year we will have an unusually large number of players [not?] staying for fifth years. But I really think this year will wind up an outlier compared to past years. What I'm not certain is whether this represents a new reality or if it is just an aberration.
Well, you could check out Spiny's list of fifth year players year by year. There's no denominator there, but it sure does not look like a trend of fewer and fewer guys opting to be back for year five.
A true comparison would also include a denominator (players who could have come back but who elected not to). I'm guessing that in the past (Willingham years), almost 80% of those who were invited back elected to come back. More recently (Harbaugh/early Shaw years), the number went down a bit because of NFL departures, but I'd guess 3/4 of those who were invited back and didn't declare for the pros, came back. This year it seems like at least half of the players who could come back and didn't have an NFL alternative are leaving.
Hoping its an abheration.
BC