01-10-2019, 02:13 PM
(01-09-2019, 05:46 PM)oldalum Wrote: It's concerning that the Pac-12 has become so weak compared with the other top conferences. Does not help us get ready for or good seeding in the NCAA tournament. Seems like we should be the best, as we have been in the past. Any idea what happened?
Well, it's not our fault, certainly. And UCLA has been holding up its end of the bargain, too. But there are two big issues, and that's the current state of the program at Cal and the state of the program at USC. Those are the four traditional powers in the conference, so when one is having a down year or cycle, the conference as a whole gets thrown off. (That has allowed some of the other teams to sniff the Top 25, too: Oregon finished last year ranked #28, Arizona State was #36, Wazzu was #42, and UW was #43. But we need Cal and USC to be good.)
Cal
Cal finished #52 last year. Just a stunningly bad year from a team that started the 2018 spring season ranked #11, which was #13 at the end of 2017, and which was ranked #2 (behind us, of course) after the 2016 season. Now, Cal women's tennis has never won a national championship despite its great history--a fact which brings me great joy--but prior to this past season, it had made the NCAA tournament every single year, the team made regular runs to the NCAA quarters and semis (and even to the championship match a couple of times). Cal challenged Stanford, UCLA, and USC for the Pac-12 title just about every year, and even won it in 2014 (before falling to, you guessed it, us in the Round of 16 of NCAAs). So what happened?
Well, that 2017 team was led by seniors Maegan Manasse (at #1) and Denise Starr (at #3), and junior Karla Popovic (#2). Manasse and Starr graduated, and Popovic missed the spring season due to injury, so what was already expected to be a bit of a rebuilding year (though still competitive) turned into a disaster with everyone playing up a spot, with sometimes 4 freshmen in the lineup. The team had improved by the end of the year, with Julia Rosenqvist cementing herself at the #1 spot, and Anna Bright looking pretty solid behind her at #2. They should be improved this year, with sophomores Rosenqvist and Bright ranked #28 and #29 in the preseason ITA rankings and senior Olivia Hauger not far behind at #34. But they're a little top-heavy, and the overall roster depth isn't to the same level that Cal has had in the past. But I'm confident they'll make the NCAA tournament this year, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them in the Top 25 by the end of the year. Last year was basically a hiccup that was due to injury and a very tough non-conference schedule, meaning Cal just couldn't rack up enough good wins to qualify for the tournament.
Note: Berkeley's star may have faded a bit in terms of a domestic recruiting destination, as the current roster of 9 players includes 4 international students (1 each from Sweden, Slovenia, England, and the Czech Republic).
USC
USC has a pedigree (2 national titles), but hasn't won a national title since 1985 and hasn't made it to a NCAA championship match since 1986. But it has had some NCAA singles and doubles champions, and it was even the #1 seed at the NCAA tournament as recently as 2015, when it fell to eventual champion Vanderbilt in the semifinals. It had an outstanding recruiting class in 2014, with three blue chips, but that class never quite lived up to expectations, as USC hasn't been seeded at NCAAs since getting that top seed in 2015. There is some reason to believe they'll improve this year, however, as senior Rianna Valdes is a top 100 preseason player, there are more blue chips on the roster, they signed one of the very best incoming freshmen in Salma Ewing, and their new head coach is just starting her second year. I think they'll rebound, and while they're not yet on the level of Stanford or UCLA, I think the days of them being an easy out are over.