[Goose]

All teams have questions, but I think fourth place in the Pac-12 N with a 4-5 conference record seems within the space of probable outcomes.

BC

I totally agree that fourth is within the range of probability. So is fifth. However, I think third or above is the most probable range. While there are lots of unknowns, I just don't think it probable that both Oregon and WSU will be better than Stanford. One or the other is not that improbable (although I hope not). Both is hard to imagine.

What about one of Oregon/WSU plus Cal finds some semblance of an offense.

BC

I considered putting in a comment about Cal finding some semblance of an offenses. I feared the risk of offending the woofing Gods and physicists by asserting that some quantum mechanics would be required for that impossible event to occur, so I didn't include it. Seriously, I think Cal will undoubtedly be better on offense next year, but probably only marginally so. The QB, Modster or whoever, will not be a turnover machine. However, I also think the defense will not be as good as everybody is anticipating, because they played over their heads last year. I could go into detail, but right now, I don't see Cal being a better football team next year than they were this year. They had some good luck this year. Regression to the mean can be a problem.

[Goose]

All teams have questions, but I think fourth place in the Pac-12 N with a 4-5 conference record seems within the space of probable outcomes.

BC

I totally agree that fourth is within the range of probability. So is fifth. However, I think third or above is the most probable range. While there are lots of unknowns, I just don't think it probable that both Oregon and WSU will be better than Stanford. One or the other is not that improbable (although I hope not). Both is hard to imagine.

What about one of Oregon/WSU plus Cal finds some semblance of an offense.

BC

I considered putting in a comment about Cal finding some semblance of an offenses. I feared the risk of offending the woofing Gods and physicists by asserting that some quantum mechanics would be required for that impossible event to occur, so I didn't include it. Seriously, I think Cal will undoubtedly be better on offense next year, but probably only marginally so. The QB, Modster or whoever, will not be a turnover machine. However, I also think the defense will not be as good as everybody is anticipating, because they played over their heads last year. I could go into detail, but right now, I don't see Cal being a better football team next year than they were this year. They had some good luck this year. Regression to the mean can be a problem.