[Goose]

but there is a non-zero chance that their offense will improve more than their defense will falter

This is, I believe, a zero probability event. Cal played defense these last two years with Dykes recruits. Wilcox got more out of them than most coaches could, I will give him that. However, lots of their success was centered around the teams they played expecting to just roll over Cal. When that didn't happen, people panicked. Teams then did stupid things and gave the game to Cal. Shaw showed the way to play them. Don't give away the game, just play sound football and eventually the basically out-manned Cal defense will falter. Catch them blitzing (because they have to) with a screen and go to the house. Not exciting, perhaps boring, but it beats Cal. Granted, it helps that the Cal offense probably can't score enough to beat you if you don't beat yourself. They get a new QB next year, but lose Laird. Laird was their run offense. In 2017, he was a major contributor. In 2018, he was hurt and did not play as well when not hurt. AFAIK, the have no replacement.  The Cal OL was predicted to be much better in 2018 based on 2017. They weren't. They were worse. Cal's 2019 recruiting class was a disappointment, so not much help there. The Cal fans blame the loss of all their receivers, Wilcox, BB, Tui, and Global Warming. The probability of them being much better offensively is, IMHO, zero. Thus the required quantum event.

and that our production will decline enough that we wind up behind them.

Unfortunately, the probability of this event is not zero. It is probably higher than we all would prefer it to be. If our OL plays the way it did in 2018  (or worse),  we are in very deep water in 2019.

[Goose]

but there is a non-zero chance that their offense will improve more than their defense will falter

This is, I believe, a zero probability event. Cal played defense these last two years with Dykes recruits. Wilcox got more out of them than most coaches could, I will give him that. However, lots of their success was centered around the teams they played expecting to just roll over Cal. When that didn't happen, people panicked. Teams then did stupid things and gave the game to Cal. Shaw showed the way to play them. Don't give away the game, just play sound football and eventually the basically out-manned Cal defense will falter. Catch them blitzing (because they have to) with a screen and go to the house. Not exciting, perhaps boring, but it beats Cal. Granted, it helps that the Cal offense probably can't score enough to beat you if you don't beat yourself. They get a new QB next year, but lose Laird. Laird was their run offense. In 2017, he was a major contributor. In 2018, he was hurt and did not play as well when not hurt. AFAIK, the have no replacement.  The Cal OL was predicted to be much better in 2018 based on 2017. They weren't. They were worse. Cal's 2019 recruiting class was a disappointment, so not much help there. The Cal fans blame the loss of all their receivers, Wilcox, BB, Tui, and Global Warming. The probability of them being much better offensively is, IMHO, zero. Thus the required quantum event.

and that our production will decline enough that we wind up behind them.

Unfortunately, the probability of this event is not zero. It is probably higher than we all would prefer it to be. If our OL plays the way it did in 2018  (or worse),  we are in very deep water in 2019.