[BostonCard]

The question I have going forward is can Shaw sustain the level of excellence of his first five years on the job, and I'm skeptical.

You are right to be skeptical; it would be hard for anyone in the country, outside of maybe Alabama and Clemson, to win their conference three times in five years and go to four BCS bowls in five years.  The 2011 - 2015 period was one of the most outstandingly consistent periods in Stanford history, and it is hard for any team, let alone Stanford, to maintain that level of excellence for that long.  I mean, consider Auburn, for example.  Gene Chizik won a national championship in 2010.  Two years later he had a losing record and was fired.  Or look at FSU; three conference championships between 2012 and 2014, including a national championship in 2013, and five consecutive 10-win seasons.  But by 2017, Jimbo Fisher resigned with the Seminoles going 5-6 (they ended the season 7-6).  Last year, Willie Taggert went 5-7.  Or look at the Oregon Ducks.  They were Pac-10/12 champions in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2014 when they went to the National Championship game under Mark Helfrich.  By 2016, the Ducks were 4-8 and Helfrich was fired.

Again, unless you are Alabama, it is very hard to retain that level of excellence over a prolonged period of time.  It is completely normal to revert some to the mean, if for no other reason, that any random fluctuation when you are very good is more likely to leave you worse off than better off (as there is not much room for improvement).

Shaw's impressive accomplishment is not in making the teams so good between 2011-2015, but in maintaining that excellence (even if it is not quite that level).  Dropping from a 10.8 win per year average is not surprising in the least; it is expected... being able to keep a 9.3 wins per year average is actually an impressive accomplishment.

BC

[BostonCard]

The question I have going forward is can Shaw sustain the level of excellence of his first five years on the job, and I'm skeptical.

You are right to be skeptical; it would be hard for anyone in the country, outside of maybe Alabama and Clemson, to win their conference three times in five years and go to four BCS bowls in five years.  The 2011 - 2015 period was one of the most outstandingly consistent periods in Stanford history, and it is hard for any team, let alone Stanford, to maintain that level of excellence for that long.  I mean, consider Auburn, for example.  Gene Chizik won a national championship in 2010.  Two years later he had a losing record and was fired.  Or look at FSU; three conference championships between 2012 and 2014, including a national championship in 2013, and five consecutive 10-win seasons.  But by 2017, Jimbo Fisher resigned with the Seminoles going 5-6 (they ended the season 7-6).  Last year, Willie Taggert went 5-7.  Or look at the Oregon Ducks.  They were Pac-10/12 champions in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2014 when they went to the National Championship game under Mark Helfrich.  By 2016, the Ducks were 4-8 and Helfrich was fired.

Again, unless you are Alabama, it is very hard to retain that level of excellence over a prolonged period of time.  It is completely normal to revert some to the mean, if for no other reason, that any random fluctuation when you are very good is more likely to leave you worse off than better off (as there is not much room for improvement).

Shaw's impressive accomplishment is not in making the teams so good between 2011-2015, but in maintaining that excellence (even if it is not quite that level).  Dropping from a 10.8 win per year average is not surprising in the least; it is expected... being able to keep a 9.3 wins per year average is actually an impressive accomplishment.

BC