03-19-2019, 10:54 AM
The new ITA rankings are out, and surprisingly, we went back up, to #4. We were helped just enough by Vanderbilt's loss to Texas A&M, so for now, we have an exceedingly slim lead over Vanderbilt (57.66 to 57.30), #6 South Carolina (55.10) and #7 Pepperdine (54.74). New singles and doubles rankings are out, too.
(FYI, this is the first week they're counting 6 wins, and next week's rankings will count 7 wins. So, don't be shocked if we drop below not just Vanderbilt, but also South Carolina and Pepperdine next week. The April 2 rankings will count 8 wins, but that's right after our trip to USC and UCLA, so we have a chance to rack up some big points that weekend and get back on track.)
Team rankings:
Here are the Top 50 teams that are in the conference or otherwise on our schedule:
2. Georgia (L)
4. Stanford
5. Vanderbilt (W)
9. UCLA (down 3)
10. Washington (down 1)
13. USC (up 4)
18. Texas (W, down 10, a harsh combination of the loss to Pepperdine and a light schedule so far, but I expect they'll pop right back up next week)
19. Cal (down 5)
21. LSU (W, down 2)
33. Washington State (W, up 3)
38. Utah (up 6)
49. Princeton (W, down 4)
Nice to see Utah continuing to climb! I hope we won't need to count a win in the 30s by the end of the year, and I'm not at all confident that Utah will remain that high, but it's still nice to see improvement across some of the Pac-12 programs that haven't been as successful to this point.
Note: The following analysis presumes we win out, just to get a sense of how the rankings would play out, not as a statement of belief or intent that the Woofing Gods should take seriously.
Assuming we take care of business against Hawaii and UC Davis, our best 7 wins for next week's rankings will be #5, #18, #21, #33, #49, and two that don't count for very much. Texas has a great opportunity in the next two weeks, however, hosting #34 Illinois today, #36 Kansas State on Friday, and #16 Kansas on Sunday, and then playing at #30 Oklahoma and #8 Oklahoma State next weekend. Even if they lose to Oklahoma State, that's still a big boost to their rankings that should have them back in the top 10. So, by the time they count 8 wins for the rankings that come out April 2, our best 8 wins could be #5 Vanderbilt, #8ish Texas, #9 UCLA (away), #13 USC (away), #21 LSU, #33 Wazzu, #49 Princeton, and just one unranked win. By the time they count 9 wins on the April 9 rankings, our best 9 wins could be #5 Vanderbilt, #8ish Texas, #9 UCLA (away), #10 UW, #13 USC (away), #21 LSU, #33 Wazzu (ITA Kickoff), #33 Wazzu (regular season), and #49 Princeton. Remember that it's just the top 9 wins that factor in to the pre-NCAA tournament rankings, and there are still road matches vs. Utah and Cal, as well as Pac-12 tournament matches, that could boost us further (such as second wins over UCLA, USC, Cal, and/or UW, depending on how seeding plays out). All in all, Stanford is still in good shape for a top 8 ranking at the end of the year, and that should still be true even if we take a loss on the road to UCLA or Cal. But the margin for error is tight.
Individual rankings:
Pac-12 players:
Singles:
17. Arbuthnott (steady)
18. Bolton (UCLA)
21. Hauger (Cal)
28. Gordon (down 6)
30. Rosenqvist (Cal)
47. Lord (down 6)
49. Ewing (USC)
51. Bayerlova (WSU)
57. Shin (down 2)
58. Lampl (down 7)
65. Sangwan (Oregon)
74. Bright (Cal)
75. Kulikov (USC)
81. Higuchi (down 18)
83. Choy (up 11)
87. John-Baptiste (ASU)
89. Fung (UW)
109. Hattingh (ASU)
120. Jankowski (ASU)
121. Nayar (CU)
123. Madurawe (down 17)
124. Willson (USC)
Doubles:
2. John-Baptiste/Hattingh (ASU)
11. Andrews/Broomfield (UCLA)
12. Lampl/Yee (down 1)
13. Mraz/Rosenqvist (Cal)
18. Arbuthnott/Gordon (up 2)
20. Kulikov/Valdes (USC)
22. Hart/Bolton (UCLA)
23. Bright/Dunk (Cal)
30. Yee/Madurawe (down 3)
41. Lord/Madurawe (down 5)
42. Fung/Zupancic (UW)
45. Altick/Miller (UCLA)
47. Wilson/Thomas (Arizona)
51. Hart/Broomfield (UCLA)
60. Mraz/Stloukalova (Cal)
65. Alicea/Hampton (ASU)
66. Mulville/Kahfiani (Oregon)
(FYI, this is the first week they're counting 6 wins, and next week's rankings will count 7 wins. So, don't be shocked if we drop below not just Vanderbilt, but also South Carolina and Pepperdine next week. The April 2 rankings will count 8 wins, but that's right after our trip to USC and UCLA, so we have a chance to rack up some big points that weekend and get back on track.)
Team rankings:
Here are the Top 50 teams that are in the conference or otherwise on our schedule:
2. Georgia (L)
4. Stanford
5. Vanderbilt (W)
9. UCLA (down 3)
10. Washington (down 1)
13. USC (up 4)
18. Texas (W, down 10, a harsh combination of the loss to Pepperdine and a light schedule so far, but I expect they'll pop right back up next week)
19. Cal (down 5)
21. LSU (W, down 2)
33. Washington State (W, up 3)
38. Utah (up 6)
49. Princeton (W, down 4)
Nice to see Utah continuing to climb! I hope we won't need to count a win in the 30s by the end of the year, and I'm not at all confident that Utah will remain that high, but it's still nice to see improvement across some of the Pac-12 programs that haven't been as successful to this point.
Note: The following analysis presumes we win out, just to get a sense of how the rankings would play out, not as a statement of belief or intent that the Woofing Gods should take seriously.
Assuming we take care of business against Hawaii and UC Davis, our best 7 wins for next week's rankings will be #5, #18, #21, #33, #49, and two that don't count for very much. Texas has a great opportunity in the next two weeks, however, hosting #34 Illinois today, #36 Kansas State on Friday, and #16 Kansas on Sunday, and then playing at #30 Oklahoma and #8 Oklahoma State next weekend. Even if they lose to Oklahoma State, that's still a big boost to their rankings that should have them back in the top 10. So, by the time they count 8 wins for the rankings that come out April 2, our best 8 wins could be #5 Vanderbilt, #8ish Texas, #9 UCLA (away), #13 USC (away), #21 LSU, #33 Wazzu, #49 Princeton, and just one unranked win. By the time they count 9 wins on the April 9 rankings, our best 9 wins could be #5 Vanderbilt, #8ish Texas, #9 UCLA (away), #10 UW, #13 USC (away), #21 LSU, #33 Wazzu (ITA Kickoff), #33 Wazzu (regular season), and #49 Princeton. Remember that it's just the top 9 wins that factor in to the pre-NCAA tournament rankings, and there are still road matches vs. Utah and Cal, as well as Pac-12 tournament matches, that could boost us further (such as second wins over UCLA, USC, Cal, and/or UW, depending on how seeding plays out). All in all, Stanford is still in good shape for a top 8 ranking at the end of the year, and that should still be true even if we take a loss on the road to UCLA or Cal. But the margin for error is tight.
Individual rankings:
Pac-12 players:
Singles:
17. Arbuthnott (steady)
18. Bolton (UCLA)
21. Hauger (Cal)
28. Gordon (down 6)
30. Rosenqvist (Cal)
47. Lord (down 6)
49. Ewing (USC)
51. Bayerlova (WSU)
57. Shin (down 2)
58. Lampl (down 7)
65. Sangwan (Oregon)
74. Bright (Cal)
75. Kulikov (USC)
81. Higuchi (down 18)
83. Choy (up 11)
87. John-Baptiste (ASU)
89. Fung (UW)
109. Hattingh (ASU)
120. Jankowski (ASU)
121. Nayar (CU)
123. Madurawe (down 17)
124. Willson (USC)
Doubles:
2. John-Baptiste/Hattingh (ASU)
11. Andrews/Broomfield (UCLA)
12. Lampl/Yee (down 1)
13. Mraz/Rosenqvist (Cal)
18. Arbuthnott/Gordon (up 2)
20. Kulikov/Valdes (USC)
22. Hart/Bolton (UCLA)
23. Bright/Dunk (Cal)
30. Yee/Madurawe (down 3)
41. Lord/Madurawe (down 5)
42. Fung/Zupancic (UW)
45. Altick/Miller (UCLA)
47. Wilson/Thomas (Arizona)
51. Hart/Broomfield (UCLA)
60. Mraz/Stloukalova (Cal)
65. Alicea/Hampton (ASU)
66. Mulville/Kahfiani (Oregon)