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So we end the day 34.5 points behind Cal.  We are predicted to outgain them by 70 points tomorrow, so it will be close, but hopefully the good gals will pull it off.

If Cal performs relatively better than expectations over Stanford for the first 3 days, they likely will perform better than expected on the 4th day.

So, I'll do some estimation based on losing all the close finishes & Cal moving up a bit.



We go into the last day down 28.5 points, but I'll count from 0-0.
15. We should have 2 in the top 8 of the 1650s and another in the next 8, but that's a large drop to get 1st (the 1st & 2nd seeds are separated by 0.01 some 8 seconds faster than Stanford's best).  Pessimistically, 5 and 8 only.   No Cal swimmers entered.   Stanford 25, Cal 0
16. We've got 3 seeded in the top 8 of the 200 Back, with the only Cal swimmer with any chance at 10.  Pessimistically, we only get 2 in and the Cal swimmer sneaks in.  So something like 2, 6, 10 for Stanford, 7 for Cal.   Stanford 62, Cal 12.
17.  100 Free.  Cal may get 1,3,10 and Stanford draws a blank.   Stanford 62, Cal 55
18.  200 Br.   Pessimistically, Stanford gets a 7th.  Optimistically, we could do a good bit better (and I think we will).  Cal definitely draws a blank.  Stanford 69, Cal 55.
19.  200 Fly.  Cal swimmers are seeded 12 and 30.  Likely best for them would be 10th.  Stanford is seeded 2,3, 9.  Pessimistically, Stanford gets 2, 4, 9.  Brooke Ford (9th) has an opportunity to move up a few spots.   Stanford 110, Cal 62.
20.  Platform diving.  We got 1st & 3rd at PAC-12s, but I thought our divers were somewhat inconsistent and, IIRC, everyone performed badly on the platform diving, but the Stanford divers didn't do as badly.   I wouldn't count on points, but they may come through.  Cal likely has no divers.  Stanford 110, Cal 62.
21.  400 Fr Relay.  Cal should easily win this event.  Pessimistically, Stanford should do no worse than 5th.  Stanford 138, Cal 102

We go into the last day down 28.5 points.  My pessimistic estimation has Stanford +36 on the last day, resulting in a close win.  I'm assuming no DQs and that everyone swims.  A very key point is that Stanford has to make the A finals on the 400 Fr Relay and don't get DQed.  If we make the A finals, we lose no more than 28 points on that last relay (6 more than I assumed).  So, I suspect Stanford will just have to not get DQed in order to win.   If Stanford doesn't make the A final (unlikely), they'd have to pick up some more points elsewhere.

Cal 2nd, Stanford 7th in 200 medley relay. Unfortunately for Cal Abby Wietzel injured elbow at finish - no word on severity or whether she will be able to race tomorrow

The Weitzeil injury could be a of immense proportions deal.  She's the top ranked swimmer in the 100 Free and the anchor for the 400 free relay team.

How the heck does the freestyler on the relay injure her elbow?  Honestly, I've never heard of a swimmer (well, except a backstroker) injuring their elbow in the pool in the 60 years of swimming that I've followed.   She swam an fabulous time, 20.45, a full half-second faster than the 2nd fastest (whom she was chasing).  SwimSwam article doesn't mention an injury.

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So we end the day 34.5 points behind Cal.  We are predicted to outgain them by 70 points tomorrow, so it will be close, but hopefully the good gals will pull it off.

If Cal performs relatively better than expectations over Stanford for the first 3 days, they likely will perform better than expected on the 4th day.

So, I'll do some estimation based on losing all the close finishes & Cal moving up a bit.



We go into the last day down 28.5 points, but I'll count from 0-0.
15. We should have 2 in the top 8 of the 1650s and another in the next 8, but that's a large drop to get 1st (the 1st & 2nd seeds are separated by 0.01 some 8 seconds faster than Stanford's best).  Pessimistically, 5 and 8 only.   No Cal swimmers entered.   Stanford 25, Cal 0
16. We've got 3 seeded in the top 8 of the 200 Back, with the only Cal swimmer with any chance at 10.  Pessimistically, we only get 2 in and the Cal swimmer sneaks in.  So something like 2, 6, 10 for Stanford, 7 for Cal.   Stanford 62, Cal 12.
17.  100 Free.  Cal may get 1,3,10 and Stanford draws a blank.   Stanford 62, Cal 55
18.  200 Br.   Pessimistically, Stanford gets a 7th.  Optimistically, we could do a good bit better (and I think we will).  Cal definitely draws a blank.  Stanford 69, Cal 55.
19.  200 Fly.  Cal swimmers are seeded 12 and 30.  Likely best for them would be 10th.  Stanford is seeded 2,3, 9.  Pessimistically, Stanford gets 2, 4, 9.  Brooke Ford (9th) has an opportunity to move up a few spots.   Stanford 110, Cal 62.
20.  Platform diving.  We got 1st & 3rd at PAC-12s, but I thought our divers were somewhat inconsistent and, IIRC, everyone performed badly on the platform diving, but the Stanford divers didn't do as badly.   I wouldn't count on points, but they may come through.  Cal likely has no divers.  Stanford 110, Cal 62.
21.  400 Fr Relay.  Cal should easily win this event.  Pessimistically, Stanford should do no worse than 5th.  Stanford 138, Cal 102

We go into the last day down 28.5 points.  My pessimistic estimation has Stanford +36 on the last day, resulting in a close win.  I'm assuming no DQs and that everyone swims.  A very key point is that Stanford has to make the A finals on the 400 Fr Relay and don't get DQed.  If we make the A finals, we lose no more than 28 points on that last relay (6 more than I assumed).  So, I suspect Stanford will just have to not get DQed in order to win.   If Stanford doesn't make the A final (unlikely), they'd have to pick up some more points elsewhere.

Cal 2nd, Stanford 7th in 200 medley relay. Unfortunately for Cal Abby Wietzel injured elbow at finish - no word on severity or whether she will be able to race tomorrow

The Weitzeil injury could be a of immense proportions deal.  She's the top ranked swimmer in the 100 Free and the anchor for the 400 free relay team.

How the heck does the freestyler on the relay injure her elbow?  Honestly, I've never heard of a swimmer (well, except a backstroker) injuring their elbow in the pool in the 60 years of swimming that I've followed.   She swam an fabulous time, 20.45, a full half-second faster than the 2nd fastest (whom she was chasing).  SwimSwam article doesn't mention an injury.