[ColoradoTree]

Some shuffling in the newest ITA rankings, as Stanford drops from #4 to #7 due to our lack of strong wins.  Georgia retakes the top spot by a hair over UNC, Duke is still a solid #3, and it's South Carolina that is now #4, with Vanderbilt holding at #5, and Texas jumping 12 spots to the #6 spot, ahead of us. (Before you get upset, remember that this is still just the computer ranking. Given our H2H wins over both Vanderbilt and Texas, it's nearly certain that we'd be the #5 seed over Vanderbilt and Texas if these were the ranking lines the NCAA committee had to deal with in determining seeds.)

Here are the teams in our conference and on our schedule in the top 50:

1. Georgia (L)
5. Vanderbilt (W)
6. Texas (W, up 12)
7. Stanford (down 3)
11. UCLA (down 2)
13. Washington (down 3)
15. Cal (up 4)
16. USC (down 3)
23. LSU (W, down 2)
35. Washington State (W, down 2)
38. Princeton (W, up 11)
47. Utah (down 9)
50. Arizona State (W, up from NR)

If we beat UCLA and USC this weekend, our best 8 wins will be #5 Vanderbilt, #6 Texas, #11 UCLA (away), #16 USC (away), #23 LSU, #35 Washington State, #38 Princeton, and #50 Arizona State. Based on my back-of-the-napkin math, beating UCLA and USC would put us ahead of Duke again, and perhaps ahead of South Carolina as well, depending on how they do (a couple of road matches this weekend against #12 Texas A&M and #23 LSU, so some big points available for them). It would put us ahead of Vanderbilt and Texas, too, even if Vanderbilt beats Kentucky on the road. (Weirdly, Vanderbilt's wins over UW and Cal are now its two most valuable wins.) 

But the lesson is straightforward. Beat UCLA/USC and we're either #3 or #4, depending on how other matches shake out, and our annual dip in the rankings as we navigate having fewer quality wins than other teams only got as bad as #7. Lose to UCLA or USC, however, and the slide continues.

[ColoradoTree]

Some shuffling in the newest ITA rankings, as Stanford drops from #4 to #7 due to our lack of strong wins.  Georgia retakes the top spot by a hair over UNC, Duke is still a solid #3, and it's South Carolina that is now #4, with Vanderbilt holding at #5, and Texas jumping 12 spots to the #6 spot, ahead of us. (Before you get upset, remember that this is still just the computer ranking. Given our H2H wins over both Vanderbilt and Texas, it's nearly certain that we'd be the #5 seed over Vanderbilt and Texas if these were the ranking lines the NCAA committee had to deal with in determining seeds.)

Here are the teams in our conference and on our schedule in the top 50:

1. Georgia (L)
5. Vanderbilt (W)
6. Texas (W, up 12)
7. Stanford (down 3)
11. UCLA (down 2)
13. Washington (down 3)
15. Cal (up 4)
16. USC (down 3)
23. LSU (W, down 2)
35. Washington State (W, down 2)
38. Princeton (W, up 11)
47. Utah (down 9)
50. Arizona State (W, up from NR)

If we beat UCLA and USC this weekend, our best 8 wins will be #5 Vanderbilt, #6 Texas, #11 UCLA (away), #16 USC (away), #23 LSU, #35 Washington State, #38 Princeton, and #50 Arizona State. Based on my back-of-the-napkin math, beating UCLA and USC would put us ahead of Duke again, and perhaps ahead of South Carolina as well, depending on how they do (a couple of road matches this weekend against #12 Texas A&M and #23 LSU, so some big points available for them). It would put us ahead of Vanderbilt and Texas, too, even if Vanderbilt beats Kentucky on the road. (Weirdly, Vanderbilt's wins over UW and Cal are now its two most valuable wins.) 

But the lesson is straightforward. Beat UCLA/USC and we're either #3 or #4, depending on how other matches shake out, and our annual dip in the rankings as we navigate having fewer quality wins than other teams only got as bad as #7. Lose to UCLA or USC, however, and the slide continues.