03-27-2019, 08:25 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-27-2019, 10:52 AM by ColoradoTree.)
The last few years, the Stanford-UCLA match has determined the conference title, and this year looks to be no different, with #7 Stanford and #11 UCLA the top two Pac-12 teams in the country. This year's edition takes place in Los Angeles on Friday at 1:30pm, followed by a trip to #16 USC, a resurgent threat for the conference title in its own right, on Sunday at noon. Those three teams as well as #15 Cal (who plays USC on Friday and UCLA on Sunday) have perfect conference records so far, so this weekend will finally bring some separation and clarity at the top of the Pac-12.
But before all of that gets started, we're going to try and get in a twice-postponed match tomorrow against UC Davis. The Aggies (3-9) aren't great, but as our football team can tell us, you underestimate UC Davis at your peril. The primary goal of getting that match in seems to be a desire to get our lineup set for UCLA (i.e., moving Lampl back down from #1), since you can only move a player one line at a time.
Season so far
* Stanford (11-1) has just one blemish, a 4-3 loss to now-#1 Georgia at National Indoors, and its best wins are against #5 Vanderbilt and #6 Texas.
* UCLA (10-3) has beaten #4 South Carolina and #9 Oklahoma State, but has also lost to #2 UNC, #8 Pepperdine, and #16 USC (in a non-conference match).
* USC (12-2) has also beaten #4 South Carolina, with its only other Top 25 win coming over UCLA; it lost a head-scratcher to unranked SMU as well as a hard-fought non-conference match against #15 Cal.
Last year:
Stanford's 4-3 win over UCLA without Lord in the lineup was the turning point of the season, and Stanford won again, 4-2, in the Pac-12 championship match. Here are the results from matches last year between players on this year's rosters:
Arbuthnott d. Andrews 6-1, 6-1
Arbuthnott d. Altick 4-6, 6-1, 6-1
Gordon d. Andrews 6-3, 6-1
Higuchi d. Broomfield 6-4, 6-2
Higuchi d. Miller 6-4, 7-6
Hart d. Lampl 6-7, 7-5, 7-5
Lampl d. Hart 6-2, 6-4
Lord d. Hart 6-1, 7-5
Shin d. Bendetti 6-2, 6-4
Altick d. Shin 6-1, 6-3
Miller d. Yee 6-3, 6-2
Against USC, Stanford won 4-0 behind doubles wins from Arbuthnott/Gordon and Higuchi/Shin and then fairly easy singles wins from Gordon over Gabby Smith at 1, Shin over Madison Westby at 4, and Yee over Alexa Corcoleotes at 6. At the time the match was abandoned, Lampl led Weissman 6-2, 5-3 at #2, Arbuthnott led Valdes 6-3, 4-2 at #3, and Higuchi led Kulikov 6-2, 3-4 at #5 (on serve in the second).
Lineups
(These are anticipated lineups that assume full health; things can and do change; records are in total dual matches regardless of line)
UCLA
1. #56 Jada Hart (5-2)
2. #18 Elysia Bolton (8-4)
3. Ayan Broomfield (3-3)
4. Abi Altick (6-1)
5. Alaina Miller (8-3)
6. Taylor Johnson (4-5)
1. #22 Bolton/Hart (6-4)
2. #11 Andrews/Broomfield (3-3)
3. Altick/Johnson (4-1) or #45 Altick/Miller (2-1)
USC
USC has done a lot of lineup shuffling (they did last year, too), so predicting the exact lineup is a fool's errand, but if everyone is healthy, here's my best guess:
1. #49 Salma Ewing (3-5)
2. #75 Angela Kulikov (8-3)
3. Rianna Valdes (4-4, incl. 2-3 at #3)
4. Ana Neffa (7-2, incl. 3-0 at #4)
5. Becca Weissmann (6-5, incl. 1-2 at #5)
6. #124 Danielle Willson (11-0, incl. 4-0 at #6)
1. #13 Kulikov/Valdes (6-2)
2. Weissman/Willson (5-3)
3. Branstine/Jaeger (5-3)
Analysis
It'll be absolute battles in the top 2 spots vs. UCLA, but I like our depth to prevail. UCLA is an excellent doubles-playing team, so coming out strong on the road will be crucial to not put too big of a burden on our singles players. If that happens, though, I'd still tip us as a slight favorite. It wouldn't be any sort of great shock if UCLA won, but I think we're better and deeper overall, and that should be enough, but it'll be a slugfest.
Against USC, Ewing is a tremendous talent at #1, so whoever plays there will have her hands full. And I would expect competitive matches throughout the lineup, but I would favor us in doubles and then certainly at the 3, 4, and 5 lines. Danielle Willson wasn't a super highly-touted recruit, but she's done very well and is 5'11", so she's the kind of player that Higuchi struggles against.
How to watch:
The UC Davis match will be available here: http://streamingtennis.com/Cardinal/?DB_OEM_ID=30600
The UCLA match will be aired on the Pac-12 network, but the live stats link is here: http://www.statbroadcast.com/events/statbroadcast.php?t=1&gid=ucla
The USC match will be streamed here: https://usctrojans.com/sports/2018/3/13/usc-tennis-live-streams.aspx
Other matches to keep an eye on:
Friday, March 29:
#23 LSU vs. #31 Florida
#6 Texas @ #30 Oklahoma
#5 Vanderbilt @ #22 Kentucky
#13 Washington vs. Arizona
#35 Washington State vs. #50 Arizona State
Sunday, March 31:
#23 LSU vs. #4 South Carolina
#6 Texas @ #9 Oklahoma State
#13 Washington vs. #50 Arizona State
#35 Washington State vs. Arizona
Given the risk of more rain in the forecast, I wonder if they're open to getting today's match against UC Davis in a little later on, since the weather really seems to clear up in the later afternoon. They could also start with singles and just play to clinch so they can get it in the books as soon as possible. The problem is that the men already have a match scheduled to start at 3pm, so they might be pretty well stuck with that 1pm window and just hope it pans out (making a singles-first approach all the more likely, with the hope you rattle off four quick wins to be out of there in 45 minutes or so). It's raining now, but the sun looks like it's coming out, so maybe there's hope?
But before all of that gets started, we're going to try and get in a twice-postponed match tomorrow against UC Davis. The Aggies (3-9) aren't great, but as our football team can tell us, you underestimate UC Davis at your peril. The primary goal of getting that match in seems to be a desire to get our lineup set for UCLA (i.e., moving Lampl back down from #1), since you can only move a player one line at a time.
Season so far
* Stanford (11-1) has just one blemish, a 4-3 loss to now-#1 Georgia at National Indoors, and its best wins are against #5 Vanderbilt and #6 Texas.
* UCLA (10-3) has beaten #4 South Carolina and #9 Oklahoma State, but has also lost to #2 UNC, #8 Pepperdine, and #16 USC (in a non-conference match).
* USC (12-2) has also beaten #4 South Carolina, with its only other Top 25 win coming over UCLA; it lost a head-scratcher to unranked SMU as well as a hard-fought non-conference match against #15 Cal.
Last year:
Stanford's 4-3 win over UCLA without Lord in the lineup was the turning point of the season, and Stanford won again, 4-2, in the Pac-12 championship match. Here are the results from matches last year between players on this year's rosters:
Arbuthnott d. Andrews 6-1, 6-1
Arbuthnott d. Altick 4-6, 6-1, 6-1
Gordon d. Andrews 6-3, 6-1
Higuchi d. Broomfield 6-4, 6-2
Higuchi d. Miller 6-4, 7-6
Hart d. Lampl 6-7, 7-5, 7-5
Lampl d. Hart 6-2, 6-4
Lord d. Hart 6-1, 7-5
Shin d. Bendetti 6-2, 6-4
Altick d. Shin 6-1, 6-3
Miller d. Yee 6-3, 6-2
Against USC, Stanford won 4-0 behind doubles wins from Arbuthnott/Gordon and Higuchi/Shin and then fairly easy singles wins from Gordon over Gabby Smith at 1, Shin over Madison Westby at 4, and Yee over Alexa Corcoleotes at 6. At the time the match was abandoned, Lampl led Weissman 6-2, 5-3 at #2, Arbuthnott led Valdes 6-3, 4-2 at #3, and Higuchi led Kulikov 6-2, 3-4 at #5 (on serve in the second).
Lineups
(These are anticipated lineups that assume full health; things can and do change; records are in total dual matches regardless of line)
UCLA
1. #56 Jada Hart (5-2)
2. #18 Elysia Bolton (8-4)
3. Ayan Broomfield (3-3)
4. Abi Altick (6-1)
5. Alaina Miller (8-3)
6. Taylor Johnson (4-5)
1. #22 Bolton/Hart (6-4)
2. #11 Andrews/Broomfield (3-3)
3. Altick/Johnson (4-1) or #45 Altick/Miller (2-1)
USC
USC has done a lot of lineup shuffling (they did last year, too), so predicting the exact lineup is a fool's errand, but if everyone is healthy, here's my best guess:
1. #49 Salma Ewing (3-5)
2. #75 Angela Kulikov (8-3)
3. Rianna Valdes (4-4, incl. 2-3 at #3)
4. Ana Neffa (7-2, incl. 3-0 at #4)
5. Becca Weissmann (6-5, incl. 1-2 at #5)
6. #124 Danielle Willson (11-0, incl. 4-0 at #6)
1. #13 Kulikov/Valdes (6-2)
2. Weissman/Willson (5-3)
3. Branstine/Jaeger (5-3)
Analysis
It'll be absolute battles in the top 2 spots vs. UCLA, but I like our depth to prevail. UCLA is an excellent doubles-playing team, so coming out strong on the road will be crucial to not put too big of a burden on our singles players. If that happens, though, I'd still tip us as a slight favorite. It wouldn't be any sort of great shock if UCLA won, but I think we're better and deeper overall, and that should be enough, but it'll be a slugfest.
Against USC, Ewing is a tremendous talent at #1, so whoever plays there will have her hands full. And I would expect competitive matches throughout the lineup, but I would favor us in doubles and then certainly at the 3, 4, and 5 lines. Danielle Willson wasn't a super highly-touted recruit, but she's done very well and is 5'11", so she's the kind of player that Higuchi struggles against.
How to watch:
The UC Davis match will be available here: http://streamingtennis.com/Cardinal/?DB_OEM_ID=30600
The UCLA match will be aired on the Pac-12 network, but the live stats link is here: http://www.statbroadcast.com/events/statbroadcast.php?t=1&gid=ucla
The USC match will be streamed here: https://usctrojans.com/sports/2018/3/13/usc-tennis-live-streams.aspx
Other matches to keep an eye on:
Friday, March 29:
#23 LSU vs. #31 Florida
#6 Texas @ #30 Oklahoma
#5 Vanderbilt @ #22 Kentucky
#13 Washington vs. Arizona
#35 Washington State vs. #50 Arizona State
Sunday, March 31:
#23 LSU vs. #4 South Carolina
#6 Texas @ #9 Oklahoma State
#13 Washington vs. #50 Arizona State
#35 Washington State vs. Arizona
Given the risk of more rain in the forecast, I wonder if they're open to getting today's match against UC Davis in a little later on, since the weather really seems to clear up in the later afternoon. They could also start with singles and just play to clinch so they can get it in the books as soon as possible. The problem is that the men already have a match scheduled to start at 3pm, so they might be pretty well stuck with that 1pm window and just hope it pans out (making a singles-first approach all the more likely, with the hope you rattle off four quick wins to be out of there in 45 minutes or so). It's raining now, but the sun looks like it's coming out, so maybe there's hope?