04-02-2019, 12:00 PM
Next week's rankings (to come out April 9) are the first to take 9 wins into account. So, if we beat UW and WSU at home (and we better), here's what our best 9 wins would be for next week's rankings:
#6 Vanderbilt
#7 Texas
#8 UCLA (away, so worth between #5 and #6)
#11 USC (away, so worth about #8)
#15 UW
#28 LSU
#36 WSU (ITA)
#36 WSU (regular season)
#37 Princeton
As a reminder, it's your best 9 wins that count for the pre-NCAA rankings, so if we win out, we'd be adding #19 Cal (away) to that list (displacing Princeton). If we assume USC and UCLA both beat UW (I think they're better), UW also loses to Cal (since it's in Berkeley and the teams are close), and USC beats UCLA (USC hosts the match that counts and already beat UCLA in Westwood in a match that didn't), we'd be looking at the following seedings for the Pac-12 tournament: (1) Stanford, (2) USC, (3) UCLA, (4) Cal, and (5) Washington. If seeds hold, we'd add a second win over one of Cal/Washington and USC/UCLA. That would give us a best 9 wins at the end of the regular season of:
#6 Vanderbilt
#7 Texas
#8 UCLA (away, reg. season)
#11 USC (away, reg. season)
#11 USC (Pac-12s)
#15 UW
#19 Cal (away, reg. season)
#19 Cal (Pac-12s)
#28 LSU
That's a top 3 or 4 resume. Even if we lose the Pac-12 championship match to UCLA or USC, however, we'd trade #11 for #36 WSU, which would still keep us right around where we are. And we have the head-to-head wins over both Vanderbilt and Texas, so if we're ranked in a clump with them at the end of the year, as seems likely, we'd get the best seed of that group if the NCAA sticks with its usual procedures. And if the results happen like I'd expect, USC could be ranked ahead of UCLA anyway, and Cal would be higher than UW (and higher than #19).
#6 Vanderbilt
#7 Texas
#8 UCLA (away, so worth between #5 and #6)
#11 USC (away, so worth about #8)
#15 UW
#28 LSU
#36 WSU (ITA)
#36 WSU (regular season)
#37 Princeton
As a reminder, it's your best 9 wins that count for the pre-NCAA rankings, so if we win out, we'd be adding #19 Cal (away) to that list (displacing Princeton). If we assume USC and UCLA both beat UW (I think they're better), UW also loses to Cal (since it's in Berkeley and the teams are close), and USC beats UCLA (USC hosts the match that counts and already beat UCLA in Westwood in a match that didn't), we'd be looking at the following seedings for the Pac-12 tournament: (1) Stanford, (2) USC, (3) UCLA, (4) Cal, and (5) Washington. If seeds hold, we'd add a second win over one of Cal/Washington and USC/UCLA. That would give us a best 9 wins at the end of the regular season of:
#6 Vanderbilt
#7 Texas
#8 UCLA (away, reg. season)
#11 USC (away, reg. season)
#11 USC (Pac-12s)
#15 UW
#19 Cal (away, reg. season)
#19 Cal (Pac-12s)
#28 LSU
That's a top 3 or 4 resume. Even if we lose the Pac-12 championship match to UCLA or USC, however, we'd trade #11 for #36 WSU, which would still keep us right around where we are. And we have the head-to-head wins over both Vanderbilt and Texas, so if we're ranked in a clump with them at the end of the year, as seems likely, we'd get the best seed of that group if the NCAA sticks with its usual procedures. And if the results happen like I'd expect, USC could be ranked ahead of UCLA anyway, and Cal would be higher than UW (and higher than #19).