05-17-2019, 01:59 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-17-2019, 03:28 PM by ColoradoTree.)
Recall that Emma Higuchi was a big underdog today, too. Iamachkine had a 0.56 UTR advantage, and Higuchi just crushed her.
If Shin and Higuchi are rolling, folks, then this is a different ballgame. I've been steeling myself against the possibility that UNC might be just a bit better than we are or that Georgia could prove too tough at key spots. But if we can count on wins at 5 and 6? I like our chances.
So both Stanford and UNC win 4-1 after dropping the doubles point and turning on the gas in singles. With the UTRs the way they are right now (not taking into account today's matches), every damn match is a toss-up. I can't get over that. I'm sure that's happened before, but it didn't last year when I saw UTR used more frequently by tennis bloggers at NCAAs.
Here it is, match by match:
1. #24 Gordon (14-5 in dual matches) vs. #5 Makenna Jones (18-5) (Gordon by 0.04)
2. #26 Lord (19-4) vs. #7 Alexa Graham (24-2) (even)
3. #66 Lampl (21-0) vs. #20 Sara Daavettila (19-5) (Daavettila by 0.02)
4. #44 Arbuthnott (20-2) vs. #46 Cameron Morra (20-2) (Morra by 0.07)
5. #108 Shin (17-3) vs. Jessie Aney (23-4) (Shin by 0.01)
6. #107 Higuchi (14-4) vs. Alle Sanford (14-6) (Sanford by 0.05)
In last year's Round of 16, UNC won the doubles point, but then Lord beat Sanford 6-4, 6-1 (gosh, Sanford has come down in the world--she was ranked #26 then and playing #2 singles for the top national seed), Higuchi beat Chloe Oullet-Pizer 6-1, 6-4 (who is still on the team, but is now the first off the bench rather than the #6), Arbuthnott beat Graham 6-3, 6-1, and Shin clinched it with a 6-3, 6-2 win over Aney.
At the time the match was clinched, Gordon had lost the first set to Makenna Jones in a tiebreaker but was up a break in the second, but Daavettila led Lampl 6-4, 5-2 and Lampl was saved from a loss only by Shin's timely clincher.
Earlier this year, Jones beat Gordon in group play at the USTA Blizzard Wild Card Challenge, but it was as tight a match as could be. They split the first two sets by 7-5 scores, and then Jones won a match tiebreaker for the third set, 13-11. At ITA All-Americans, Gordon lost a disappointing match to Graham, 0-6, 6-3, 6-3. The only other Stanford-UNC match I see is Yee losing to Aney in three sets at a fall tournament.
Slam.tennis favors UNC slightly, calling them a 60% favorite to win, which seems fair enough. Both teams have only lost once, and in each case it was a 4-3 loss to Georgia at Indoor Nationals. The individual UTRs are darn near identical, and the UTR Power 6 favors UNC but just barely (68.49 to 68.39). But UNC is the better doubles team, so on paper, I'd absolutely agree that UNC should be slightly favored.
In doubles tomorrow, I think Lampl/Yee lose again, and I think Lord/Madurawe win on 3, so it all comes down to that match on #2. Here are the doubles matchups:
1. #19 Lampl/Yee (11-8 in duals) vs. #2 Aney/Graham (23-2)
2. #29 Arbuthnott/Gordon (16-3) vs. #12 Jones/Morra (13-3)
3. #57 Lord/Madurawe (17-5) vs. Daavettila/Sanford (10-5)
I have no idea how this goes. I am very nervous about this match. I know I'm nervous about every match, but I'm extra nervous about this one.
Vanderbilt over Georgia; South Carolina over Duke. We should cheer especially hard for Vanderbilt, as we match up the worst with Georgia of any of the remaining teams. (And, you know, we beat them 6-1 this season already. But caveat emptor: we lost to them 7-0 in the regular season last year before winning the NCAA title match 4-3.)
Here's how we match up against each team (again, just as a hypothetical exercise, not a statement of any confidence in beating North Carolina, as the woofing gods should know by now I am exceedingly nervous about that match and have no confidence at all in predicting any outcome):
* Georgia: We're a slight favorite at #2, while Georgia is a big favorite on #6, and slight/moderate favorites at #1, #4, and #5. Lampl's match at #3 would be a toss-up.
* Vanderbilt: Stanford is a big favorite at #4, a moderate favorite at #3 and #5, and a slight favorite at #1, while Vanderbilt is a slight favorite at #6. The match at #2 (Lord-Contreras again) would be a toss-up.
* South Carolina: Stanford would be a moderate favorite at #6 and a slight favorite at #3; the matches at #1, #2, #4, and #5 would be toss-ups.
* Duke: Stanford is a moderate favorite at #4, while Duke is a big favorite at #6 and a moderate favorite at #5. The matches at #1, #2, and #3 would be toss-ups.
Note, of course, that a lot of those matchup issues are due to trailing big at #6. But if we're rolling out Peak NCAA Higuchi rather than Scuffling Regular Season Higuchi? Different story.
FYI, Georgia has already beaten Vanderbilt twice this year, 4-3 at National Indoors and then 4-1 (indoors again) at home in Athens.
According to UTR, Georgia is a very big favorite at #4 (0.87), and a moderate favorite at #1, #3, #5, and #6, while Vanderbilt is a slight favorite at #2. Vanderbilt is generally a better doubles team than Georgia, so if Vanderbilt doesn't take the doubles point, I don't see them winning four singles matches. It's early, but so far, Vanderbilt is up a break at #1 and #3, and on serve at #2.
She's unbelievable, and you're absolutely right. You can't talk about the great coaches in University history without mentioning her name. From recruiting, to developing players, to sending them to the pros, to raising the level of play in key moments and at NCAAs, to being a master of the schedule so you've threaded the needle between playing just enough top teams to get your seeding where you need it to be, but not so many that your players aren't coming into NCAAs fresh--she's been at the top of the sport for a while. Long may she reign.
If Shin and Higuchi are rolling, folks, then this is a different ballgame. I've been steeling myself against the possibility that UNC might be just a bit better than we are or that Georgia could prove too tough at key spots. But if we can count on wins at 5 and 6? I like our chances.
So both Stanford and UNC win 4-1 after dropping the doubles point and turning on the gas in singles. With the UTRs the way they are right now (not taking into account today's matches), every damn match is a toss-up. I can't get over that. I'm sure that's happened before, but it didn't last year when I saw UTR used more frequently by tennis bloggers at NCAAs.
Here it is, match by match:
1. #24 Gordon (14-5 in dual matches) vs. #5 Makenna Jones (18-5) (Gordon by 0.04)
2. #26 Lord (19-4) vs. #7 Alexa Graham (24-2) (even)
3. #66 Lampl (21-0) vs. #20 Sara Daavettila (19-5) (Daavettila by 0.02)
4. #44 Arbuthnott (20-2) vs. #46 Cameron Morra (20-2) (Morra by 0.07)
5. #108 Shin (17-3) vs. Jessie Aney (23-4) (Shin by 0.01)
6. #107 Higuchi (14-4) vs. Alle Sanford (14-6) (Sanford by 0.05)
In last year's Round of 16, UNC won the doubles point, but then Lord beat Sanford 6-4, 6-1 (gosh, Sanford has come down in the world--she was ranked #26 then and playing #2 singles for the top national seed), Higuchi beat Chloe Oullet-Pizer 6-1, 6-4 (who is still on the team, but is now the first off the bench rather than the #6), Arbuthnott beat Graham 6-3, 6-1, and Shin clinched it with a 6-3, 6-2 win over Aney.
At the time the match was clinched, Gordon had lost the first set to Makenna Jones in a tiebreaker but was up a break in the second, but Daavettila led Lampl 6-4, 5-2 and Lampl was saved from a loss only by Shin's timely clincher.
Earlier this year, Jones beat Gordon in group play at the USTA Blizzard Wild Card Challenge, but it was as tight a match as could be. They split the first two sets by 7-5 scores, and then Jones won a match tiebreaker for the third set, 13-11. At ITA All-Americans, Gordon lost a disappointing match to Graham, 0-6, 6-3, 6-3. The only other Stanford-UNC match I see is Yee losing to Aney in three sets at a fall tournament.
Slam.tennis favors UNC slightly, calling them a 60% favorite to win, which seems fair enough. Both teams have only lost once, and in each case it was a 4-3 loss to Georgia at Indoor Nationals. The individual UTRs are darn near identical, and the UTR Power 6 favors UNC but just barely (68.49 to 68.39). But UNC is the better doubles team, so on paper, I'd absolutely agree that UNC should be slightly favored.
In doubles tomorrow, I think Lampl/Yee lose again, and I think Lord/Madurawe win on 3, so it all comes down to that match on #2. Here are the doubles matchups:
1. #19 Lampl/Yee (11-8 in duals) vs. #2 Aney/Graham (23-2)
2. #29 Arbuthnott/Gordon (16-3) vs. #12 Jones/Morra (13-3)
3. #57 Lord/Madurawe (17-5) vs. Daavettila/Sanford (10-5)
I have no idea how this goes. I am very nervous about this match. I know I'm nervous about every match, but I'm extra nervous about this one.
(05-17-2019, 01:54 PM)Canalejas Wrote: Do we have any cheering interests in the other two quarterfinals?
Georgia vs Vanderbilt
Duke vs South Carolina
Vanderbilt over Georgia; South Carolina over Duke. We should cheer especially hard for Vanderbilt, as we match up the worst with Georgia of any of the remaining teams. (And, you know, we beat them 6-1 this season already. But caveat emptor: we lost to them 7-0 in the regular season last year before winning the NCAA title match 4-3.)
Here's how we match up against each team (again, just as a hypothetical exercise, not a statement of any confidence in beating North Carolina, as the woofing gods should know by now I am exceedingly nervous about that match and have no confidence at all in predicting any outcome):
* Georgia: We're a slight favorite at #2, while Georgia is a big favorite on #6, and slight/moderate favorites at #1, #4, and #5. Lampl's match at #3 would be a toss-up.
* Vanderbilt: Stanford is a big favorite at #4, a moderate favorite at #3 and #5, and a slight favorite at #1, while Vanderbilt is a slight favorite at #6. The match at #2 (Lord-Contreras again) would be a toss-up.
* South Carolina: Stanford would be a moderate favorite at #6 and a slight favorite at #3; the matches at #1, #2, #4, and #5 would be toss-ups.
* Duke: Stanford is a moderate favorite at #4, while Duke is a big favorite at #6 and a moderate favorite at #5. The matches at #1, #2, and #3 would be toss-ups.
Note, of course, that a lot of those matchup issues are due to trailing big at #6. But if we're rolling out Peak NCAA Higuchi rather than Scuffling Regular Season Higuchi? Different story.
FYI, Georgia has already beaten Vanderbilt twice this year, 4-3 at National Indoors and then 4-1 (indoors again) at home in Athens.
According to UTR, Georgia is a very big favorite at #4 (0.87), and a moderate favorite at #1, #3, #5, and #6, while Vanderbilt is a slight favorite at #2. Vanderbilt is generally a better doubles team than Georgia, so if Vanderbilt doesn't take the doubles point, I don't see them winning four singles matches. It's early, but so far, Vanderbilt is up a break at #1 and #3, and on serve at #2.
(05-17-2019, 01:46 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: Lele Forood is up there among the all time great coaches in Stanford history. Her teams always seem to raise their games when the stakes are the biggest. That was a great effort against a team that had won 2 straight vs. Stanford during the regular season.
Next up - North Carolina, part 3. Stanford has eliminated the Tar Heels each of the past 2 seasons.
She's unbelievable, and you're absolutely right. You can't talk about the great coaches in University history without mentioning her name. From recruiting, to developing players, to sending them to the pros, to raising the level of play in key moments and at NCAAs, to being a master of the schedule so you've threaded the needle between playing just enough top teams to get your seeding where you need it to be, but not so many that your players aren't coming into NCAAs fresh--she's been at the top of the sport for a while. Long may she reign.