05-30-2019, 02:57 PM
(05-30-2019, 01:30 PM)CTcard Wrote: Thought this might be a good time to give a rundown of our first opponent in the baseball regional: the Sacramento State Hornets.
Sacramento is 39-23 overall, and was 18-9 in the WAC regular season. That was good for a tie for 4th/5th. They were the 3rd seed in the WAC tournament, I think because Cal Baptist is not yet eligible for the tournament. They started that tournament with a loss to Utah Valley (6th seed), but then proceeded to win six straight to win the WAC automatic bid.
On their own web page, Sacramento State is proud to point out that their 39 wins is the most among the 4 seeds in the tournament.
The highlights from Sacramento's schedule this year would be a road win at UCLA (1-2 in the series), a 6-0 home win over cal, and their six game run in the WAC tournament. Lowlights from the schedule would include losing 3 of 4 at Pacific early on and a 3-8 stretch in the middle of their conference season.
Overall, they have a Massey rating of 84th, and an ISR (BoydsWorld) of 99th.
Sac State's strength is pitching. Their team ERA is 3.69, tops in the WAC and 27th in the country. They've given up 39 home runs in 62 games.
Sac State's offense is less strong. Their batting average is 0.235 (9th of 10 in the WAC), they've hit 37 HRs in 62 games, and have a team OPS of 0.692.
The guy I would think we would face as a starter is Scott Randall, a sophomore who has gone 8-1 in 14 starts, 90 IP, and a 2.50 ERA. He's their best pitcher and workhorse. However, he seems to have mostly been a day two starter, including in both of their final two series and the WAC tournament. Sac St does seem to rotate their rotation a lot, so he's likely the guy we'd see. If not Randall, I'd guess we'd see Jr Austin Roberts (4-4, 6 saves, 3.18 ERA) who started game 1 of their final two series. Jr. Parker Brahms (4-4, 4.52 ERA) started game 1 of the WAC tournament, but I think they were trying to get away with saving their better pitchers because they thought they could win game 1 anyway (which did not work).
They also have a lot of guys they can bring out of the bullpen - I see 8 guys with >48 innings pitched and ERAs 4.5 or below. [For comparison, Stanford has a very good bullpen but to get to 8 guys you have to go down to 31 innings pitched.]
The Hornet offense is not their strength, averaging 5.14 runs/game and hitting 0.235 as a club.
Some comparisons: Arizona (probably the best offensive team in the country) is averaging 9.79 runs/game and hitting 0.326. Stanford is scoring 6.75 runs/game and hitting 0.281. Oregon State (whom Hulk complains is offensively challenged) is scoring 5.71 runs/game and hitting 0.264.
Sac St's best hitter is their leadoff guy, LF Matt Smith (0.318, SLG 0.479, 6 HR). He's also their only hitter over 0.300. In fact, they only have one other guy hitting over 0.250 - usual DH Bacho at 0.277 AVG, 455 SLG, 8 HR. Their leading HR hitter is 3B Moretto with 9 but he's only hitting 0.215 AVG.
I would tend to expect a low scoring game.
I expect Stanford to stick with Beck as game one starter.
[Should we manage to win, it will be interesting to see if Esquer flips Matthiessen for Miller in the very important winners bracket game.]
I have been wondering how we will handle our pitchers. If we only have to play three games then it isn't too complicated, but if we have to play 4 who is going to start that 4th game? Also, how we handle our bull pen could be significant. Crossing my fingers, but I may have used that up charm for the Men's golf team.