[OutsiderFan]

FWIW, Fangraphs gives the Giants just a 7.2% chance of making the playoffs, so logic says sell.

BC

That is double what the chance was a month ago. And once again, it's not the same team as the first two months of the season.

I don't think the issue is if the Giants can make the playoffs. It looks like they can. The real issue is balancing what they value in the near and longer term against what opportunity cost they are willing to endure now? Because anything the Giants do or don't do at the trade deadline is almost certainly going to carry some benefit now/later and some opportunity cost now/later.

At this point I don't think Fangraphs projections are all that meaningful, because as much as people try to reduce things to numbers, the reality is humans are not robots. Emotions, player adjustments, coaching, and team dynamics play a role in performance that can't be calculated.

[OutsiderFan]

FWIW, Fangraphs gives the Giants just a 7.2% chance of making the playoffs, so logic says sell.

BC

That is double what the chance was a month ago. And once again, it's not the same team as the first two months of the season.

I don't think the issue is if the Giants can make the playoffs. It looks like they can. The real issue is balancing what they value in the near and longer term against what opportunity cost they are willing to endure now? Because anything the Giants do or don't do at the trade deadline is almost certainly going to carry some benefit now/later and some opportunity cost now/later.

At this point I don't think Fangraphs projections are all that meaningful, because as much as people try to reduce things to numbers, the reality is humans are not robots. Emotions, player adjustments, coaching, and team dynamics play a role in performance that can't be calculated.