[qwerty49]

Well, it is great that they won. Looking ahead, it is worth noting that in the years since there were two wild cards (2012), the worst wild card record was 87 wins. If one uses that as a benchmark, the required number of wins for the Giants in their remaining 43 games would be 28. That requires the Giants to play .651 baseball, if history is a guide. However, the current wild card #2 is winning at an overall .526 clip, indicating that maybe 85 games will be enough this year. That requires "only" .600 baseball from here on out. Can they do it? They could if they didn't have three AAA starters. If Bum and Shark win all their starts (not a sure thing, needless to say, but assume that happens), that would be about 17 wins. That leaves 9 more wins to get somewhere, in 26 games. The AAA starters would have to win .346 to do it. So far, they haven't shown the ability to do so. If Cueto can come back "soon", maybe possible, otherwise, thanks for trying IMHO.

The math here is compelling, thanks. It’s really scary to think that if Bum and Shark win out, we still need at least 9 wins from the AAA guys. We should not assume Cueto comes back in peak form. If he can win 2 games in Sept that only leaves us looking for 7 more. But still a big hill to climb. 

And please let’s not get misled by “3.5 games back.” They are FIVE games back in the loss column. 6-6 in the next two weeks gets them nowhere.

[qwerty49]

Well, it is great that they won. Looking ahead, it is worth noting that in the years since there were two wild cards (2012), the worst wild card record was 87 wins. If one uses that as a benchmark, the required number of wins for the Giants in their remaining 43 games would be 28. That requires the Giants to play .651 baseball, if history is a guide. However, the current wild card #2 is winning at an overall .526 clip, indicating that maybe 85 games will be enough this year. That requires "only" .600 baseball from here on out. Can they do it? They could if they didn't have three AAA starters. If Bum and Shark win all their starts (not a sure thing, needless to say, but assume that happens), that would be about 17 wins. That leaves 9 more wins to get somewhere, in 26 games. The AAA starters would have to win .346 to do it. So far, they haven't shown the ability to do so. If Cueto can come back "soon", maybe possible, otherwise, thanks for trying IMHO.

The math here is compelling, thanks. It’s really scary to think that if Bum and Shark win out, we still need at least 9 wins from the AAA guys. We should not assume Cueto comes back in peak form. If he can win 2 games in Sept that only leaves us looking for 7 more. But still a big hill to climb. 

And please let’s not get misled by “3.5 games back.” They are FIVE games back in the loss column. 6-6 in the next two weeks gets them nowhere.