11-24-2019, 01:53 PM
(11-24-2019, 09:36 AM)BostonCard Wrote: UW under Petersen is 6-5, having just lost to Colorado (and us)
Northwestern under Fitzgerald is 2-9, 0-8 in the BigTen (having lost to us and pretty much everyone else)
Michigan State under Mark Dantonio is 5-6
UCLA under Chip Kelley is 4-7 (though one of the four wins is against us)
WSU under the pirate is 6-5 (having just been on the other side of an epic coup by OSU)
Nebraska under Scott Frost is 5-6
And of course David Shaw is 4-7, having lost to two of the coaches on this list
All of these are excellent, well-respected coaches, who have a demonstrated capability of winning. All of them have had disappointing seasons compared to what their fans have gotten used to. Some, like Frost and Kelley are only in their second seasons and are rebuilding their teams. I don’t go to other fans’ cardboard equivalents, but I would be shocked if we didn’t see posts bitching and moaning the demise of their program, and how their coach is not living up to expectations, and worrying about whether they’ve lost a step (or in Frost’s case just can’t hack it in a bigger conference). I expect most (including Shaw) will bounce back next year.
The bottom line is coaching is a hard business, and Shaw is hardly the only good coach with a disappointing season.
BC
Nice summary. Just a few points from my side, some of which echo what AlbanyCardinal pointed out.
1) The current season is objectively the nadir of a long process (at least I hope it is the nadir) beginning already in 2014/2015. An analysis of recent statistics shows that our defense started deteriorating after the 2014 season and is now ranked 95th in the nation on total yards given up per game. Hence, this is not a one-season blip, but the culmination of a slow, but steady deterioration. The offensive production has followed a similar, but less obvious downward trajectory.
2) Scott Frost and Chip Kelly inherited bankrupt programs and should not really be on the list. If anything, they should be compared to the turnaround work Jim Harbaugh (Stanford) or Brian Kelly (Notre Dame) did at their respective downward trending programs. In this context, Kelly is an instructive example because he produced a 4-8 2016 campaign sandwiched between two 10-3 efforts. So, yes, such performance drops happen to otherwise successful coaches.
3) In my view, the downward blips by Washington and Washington State are qualitatively different. Washington won the Pac-12 championship as recently as 2016 and 2018, so this year's dip feels anomalous and not part of an overall trend. In Wazzu's case, the defensive woes (started after Grinch's departure and not improved by Tracy Claeys's short tenure with the program) account for their issues this year; and this could become an ongoing theme if Lynch does not address it.
4) The one case in this list that is truly comparable is Dantonio from MSU. Since I have old MSU ties, I can assure you that the fan base is having more or less the same discussions we are having: Dantonio is their winningest coach in history, has 3 Big Ten titles, multiple BCS bowls, a CFP appearance, a dominant record against their rival, Michigan. What's not to love? And yet, the program has been declining, and MSU is no longer a serious contender in the Big Ten. Many say he has lost touch, is too loyal to his coaching staff and isn't making the tough choices. I don't think his goodwill at MSU is nearly as high as Shaw's is at Stanford. The AD that hired him is gone, so his seat might get hot if things do not turn around.
5) Fitzgerald's fall from grace is truly precipitous (from first to worst in one season). Incredible drop.
What is certainly clear is that football success in any given context is not only difficult, but also a zero-sum game. Great records by some programs have to be matched by poor records at other programs. Every game has a winner and a loser. Stanford's run of dominance between 2010 and 2015 meant other programs were winning less; now we are on the other side of this ledger. The much larger question is whether Shaw can reverse the downward trend, and it is a trend, despite what the pair of recent 9 win seasons (2017-2018)) indicate. Does he have what it takes to rebuild a program (not just lead an established program)? Will he make the tough choices and ruffle the necessary feathers to get the program back to its erstwhile winning ways? I am not convinced at this point, but that is the subject of another thread.
