[Austroturf]

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3) In my view, the downward blips by Washington and Washington State are qualitatively different.  Washington won the Pac-12 championship as recently as 2016 and 2018, so this year's dip feels anomalous and not part of an overall trend.  In Wazzu's case, the defensive woes (started after Grinch's departure and not improved by Tracy Claeys's short tenure with the program) account for their issues this year; and this could become an ongoing theme if Lynch does not address it.  

The narrative that we have been in a slow steady decline is somewhat contradicted by the fact that we won the Pac-12 North as recently as 2017.  We lost that Pac-12 championship 31-28 against a USC team that went on to beat Penn State in the Rose Bowl, so it wasn't like we didn't belong.

BC

This is a valid statement on the face of it.  However, just looking at pure statistics (rankings in offense and defense, PPG allowed vs. scored, etc.) and total win/loss numbers and our year-end rankings, each year is a kind of saw-tooth drop down from the earlier lofty heights. Just listing the records and year-end rankings shows that things have been slowly, but inexorably trending downward:

2010   12-1   4
2011   11-2   7
2012   12-2   7
2013   11-3  11
2014     8-5  NR
2015   12-2    3
2016   10-3  12
2017     9-5  20
2018     9-4  NR
2019     4-7  NR

Even in what was arguably a good 2017 season, we lost 5 games (USC twice, SDSU, Washington State and TCU).  In this list, it is hard to tell whether 2014 or 2015 is the outlier.  Starting from 2010 and going forward in the list, the 2014 season seems to be the anomalous blip downward.  Going backwards from 2019, the 2015 season seems to be an isolated upward blip.  But it is clear that our year-end rankings have been declining overall, and the number of losses we accumulate in a given season has been increasing (at least on a rolling average).  At the same time, our recruiting rankings have not noticeably declined, so that alone would argue against a downward performance trend.

There's also the expectations factor: I remember 2016 as a "disappointing" season because we lost three games in a four-game stretch (UW, Wazzu, Colorado) and stood at 4-3 after 7 games and unranked.  Eventually, after five straight victories to close the regular season and a gritty Sun Bowl victory over the Tar Heels, we finished 12th in the final AP poll.  Many fans were disappointed that we had been unable to crack the top ten (again).  But from today's perspective, that kind of ranking seems like a dream.  So, yes, we have been declining, step by step, year by year.  Even our expectations are declining.  And winning the north division in 2017 does not mask this reality.

[Austroturf]

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3) In my view, the downward blips by Washington and Washington State are qualitatively different.  Washington won the Pac-12 championship as recently as 2016 and 2018, so this year's dip feels anomalous and not part of an overall trend.  In Wazzu's case, the defensive woes (started after Grinch's departure and not improved by Tracy Claeys's short tenure with the program) account for their issues this year; and this could become an ongoing theme if Lynch does not address it.  

The narrative that we have been in a slow steady decline is somewhat contradicted by the fact that we won the Pac-12 North as recently as 2017.  We lost that Pac-12 championship 31-28 against a USC team that went on to beat Penn State in the Rose Bowl, so it wasn't like we didn't belong.

BC

This is a valid statement on the face of it.  However, just looking at pure statistics (rankings in offense and defense, PPG allowed vs. scored, etc.) and total win/loss numbers and our year-end rankings, each year is a kind of saw-tooth drop down from the earlier lofty heights. Just listing the records and year-end rankings shows that things have been slowly, but inexorably trending downward:

2010   12-1   4
2011   11-2   7
2012   12-2   7
2013   11-3  11
2014     8-5  NR
2015   12-2    3
2016   10-3  12
2017     9-5  20
2018     9-4  NR
2019     4-7  NR

Even in what was arguably a good 2017 season, we lost 5 games (USC twice, SDSU, Washington State and TCU).  In this list, it is hard to tell whether 2014 or 2015 is the outlier.  Starting from 2010 and going forward in the list, the 2014 season seems to be the anomalous blip downward.  Going backwards from 2019, the 2015 season seems to be an isolated upward blip.  But it is clear that our year-end rankings have been declining overall, and the number of losses we accumulate in a given season has been increasing (at least on a rolling average).  At the same time, our recruiting rankings have not noticeably declined, so that alone would argue against a downward performance trend.

There's also the expectations factor: I remember 2016 as a "disappointing" season because we lost three games in a four-game stretch (UW, Wazzu, Colorado) and stood at 4-3 after 7 games and unranked.  Eventually, after five straight victories to close the regular season and a gritty Sun Bowl victory over the Tar Heels, we finished 12th in the final AP poll.  Many fans were disappointed that we had been unable to crack the top ten (again).  But from today's perspective, that kind of ranking seems like a dream.  So, yes, we have been declining, step by step, year by year.  Even our expectations are declining.  And winning the north division in 2017 does not mask this reality.