[Goose]

Will he leave in 2019 or in 2020?  



That's the problem with trying to find a good coach.   They are hard to find and almost impossible to keep for most Pac-12 programs.   There is no way a coach with aspirations of coaching greatness will stay at UCB for more then 1-2 successful seasons in this era.  There's simply too much money, fame and prestige available elsewhere.

I am not so sure of that. If Wilcox is clearly "the answer", I think Cal will come up with whatever money they must in order to keep him, at least for a while. There are offers he couldn't refuse, but I do think he could easily have four or five real good years at Cal. OTOH, next year he must rebuild his defense. It could be not so easy to go 8-5 next year. It also seems that recruiting hasn't been stellar either, so who knows?

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 But it is clear that our year-end rankings have been declining overall, and the number of losses we accumulate in a given season has been increasing (at least on a rolling average).  At the same time, our recruiting rankings have not noticeably declined, so that alone would argue against a downward performance trend.

Not necessarily. The fact we are losing more games can be equally attributed to other teams upward performance trend, not us getting worse. I think in reality there is some of both. Washington was bad for a long time. Oregon State was a total mess. WSU was all offense/no defense for quite a while (no more). Cal under Dykes was all offense as well. and never did get a defense. All we really had to worry about was Oregon. Things are harder now than they were. That makes a big difference.

Just to be clear: what are you referring to when you say "not necessarily"?

What I mean is that our play could be just be just as good as it was in the past on an "absolute" scale, but our opponents are playing better than they did in the past. Our record may be worse not because we are worse but rather because our opponents are better. In other words, a declining record doesn't necessarily mean we are getting worse. It could be our opponents are better. To some significant extent, I think this is true. Certainly OSU and UW are better against Stanford as well as against other teams.

I am not saying that a declining record isn't a problem. I am saying a declining record doesn't by itself prove we are worse than in previous years. There are other factors, like our opponents, to consider.

[Goose]

Will he leave in 2019 or in 2020?  



That's the problem with trying to find a good coach.   They are hard to find and almost impossible to keep for most Pac-12 programs.   There is no way a coach with aspirations of coaching greatness will stay at UCB for more then 1-2 successful seasons in this era.  There's simply too much money, fame and prestige available elsewhere.

I am not so sure of that. If Wilcox is clearly "the answer", I think Cal will come up with whatever money they must in order to keep him, at least for a while. There are offers he couldn't refuse, but I do think he could easily have four or five real good years at Cal. OTOH, next year he must rebuild his defense. It could be not so easy to go 8-5 next year. It also seems that recruiting hasn't been stellar either, so who knows?

---

 But it is clear that our year-end rankings have been declining overall, and the number of losses we accumulate in a given season has been increasing (at least on a rolling average).  At the same time, our recruiting rankings have not noticeably declined, so that alone would argue against a downward performance trend.

Not necessarily. The fact we are losing more games can be equally attributed to other teams upward performance trend, not us getting worse. I think in reality there is some of both. Washington was bad for a long time. Oregon State was a total mess. WSU was all offense/no defense for quite a while (no more). Cal under Dykes was all offense as well. and never did get a defense. All we really had to worry about was Oregon. Things are harder now than they were. That makes a big difference.

Just to be clear: what are you referring to when you say "not necessarily"?

What I mean is that our play could be just be just as good as it was in the past on an "absolute" scale, but our opponents are playing better than they did in the past. Our record may be worse not because we are worse but rather because our opponents are better. In other words, a declining record doesn't necessarily mean we are getting worse. It could be our opponents are better. To some significant extent, I think this is true. Certainly OSU and UW are better against Stanford as well as against other teams.

I am not saying that a declining record isn't a problem. I am saying a declining record doesn't by itself prove we are worse than in previous years. There are other factors, like our opponents, to consider.