11-25-2019, 11:43 PM
Thanks for the data; I seem to have completely misremembered 2015's defense, which was pretty average for the Harbaugh/Shaw years.
The average absolute year-to-year change for the defense is 0.39 pts/drive. If we hit that average in the right direction (we arguably have no way to go but up), we are looking at giving up 2.2 pts/drive, which is still not good. The average year-to-year change in offensive pts/drive is 0.74 (interesting that there is more year to year variability in the offense than the defense). If we hit that, we would approach the average offense during the Harbaugh/Shaw years.
In looking at net points/drive, 2019 marks the first time since 2008 that we have been negative (not surprisingly, it is also the first time since 2008 that we've had a losing record). 2019 marked the biggest drop in net points/drive (offensive - defensive) since before Harbaugh; we went from +0.43 pts/drive to -0.8 pts/drive. The only comparable drop was from 2011 to 2012 (from 1.8 to 0.7 net points per drive), which coincided with Andrew Luck's departure (which knocked off a full 1.5 points our offensive efficiency, though our defensive pts/drive improved). This year, as you point out, it has been both the offense and defense that have stunk; our offensive points per drive of 1.8 was the lowest since 2007 (before Gerhart, who I think was injured most of the year). Our defensive points per drive of 2.6 was our worst in the Harbaugh/Shaw era.
BC
The average absolute year-to-year change for the defense is 0.39 pts/drive. If we hit that average in the right direction (we arguably have no way to go but up), we are looking at giving up 2.2 pts/drive, which is still not good. The average year-to-year change in offensive pts/drive is 0.74 (interesting that there is more year to year variability in the offense than the defense). If we hit that, we would approach the average offense during the Harbaugh/Shaw years.
In looking at net points/drive, 2019 marks the first time since 2008 that we have been negative (not surprisingly, it is also the first time since 2008 that we've had a losing record). 2019 marked the biggest drop in net points/drive (offensive - defensive) since before Harbaugh; we went from +0.43 pts/drive to -0.8 pts/drive. The only comparable drop was from 2011 to 2012 (from 1.8 to 0.7 net points per drive), which coincided with Andrew Luck's departure (which knocked off a full 1.5 points our offensive efficiency, though our defensive pts/drive improved). This year, as you point out, it has been both the offense and defense that have stunk; our offensive points per drive of 1.8 was the lowest since 2007 (before Gerhart, who I think was injured most of the year). Our defensive points per drive of 2.6 was our worst in the Harbaugh/Shaw era.
BC