Here is my analysis/breakdown of our schedule in terms of what it might mean for this season:
Overall, another solid schedule, mixing challenging games both in and out of conference,
with tossup games, with hopefully surefire wins. In looking at the non-conference schedule as a whole,
I would say it is probably relatively comparable to last year's schedule (maybe a hair easier, given
we have substituted some tournament level mid majors such as Drake, BYU and Grand Canyon
for our contests against Northwestern and Michigan last year; those wins over LSU, Michigan
and Northwestern were big in terms of building our resume last year, so only having Tennessee as
a non-conference P5 opponent worries me a little bit in terms of name/prestige/cache.
Granted, we will face plenty good P5 competition in conference, so it probably won't matter too much.
All in all, this is definitely a tournament level schedule, but I am not certain it is a Top 16/Regional Host level
non-conference schedule. However, if we notch some good wins in conference, that gives a path toward
a national seed.
In terms of the non-conference, here is my breakdown of our opponents by tier:
Definite Tournament Teams
at Tennessee (at least one game)
Like last year's contest at LSU, this year's non-conference schedule is highlighted
by another tough road test in Knoxville.
Strong Tournament Contenders
at BYU
at Grand Canyon (x2)
Drake (x2)
Fresno State
vs. Weber State (x2)
Seattle (x2)
We have a lot of contests against strong mid major teams,
many of whom either made the NCAA tournament or strongly
contended for the NCAA tournament last year.
Drake lost their ace pitcher that led them to a #2 regional seed,
so I think they will take a sizable step back, but I think they will
contend in their conference for a tournament berth.
I expect Fresno State and BYU to be in the tournament at-large
conversation, and Weber State and Seattle were both AQ's last year
(with Seattle even being a #3 regional seed). Grand Canyon upset
then #1 Florida State at home in Phoenix, so that is not an easy
opener for the Card by any means.
Average Mid-Majors
Nevada (x3)
Hofstra (x2)
I am expecting a stronger performance from Hofstra this year than
last year, as previously the Pride have been a perennial tourney team/
in the at-large conversation.
Below Average Mid Majors
vs New Mexico (x2)
Pacific
Saint Francis Pennsylvania (x2)
Rhode Island (x2)
Toledo (at least one game)
East Tennessee State (at least one game)
at Saint Mary's (x2)
at Sacramento State (x2)
Santa Clara
We should hopefully win most, if not all of these games.
In conference, here is the breakdown of opponents by difficulty:
Definite National Seed
Arizona (x3)
at UCLA (x3)
Washington (x3)
Wins in any of these are resume-defining wins.
Likely NCAA Tournament Team/NCAA Tournament Contender
at Oregon (x3)
at Arizona State (x3)
Oregon State (x3)
Cal (x3)
ASU is probably the strongest team in this bunch, who could challenge
for a Top 16 National seed. Oregon and Oregon State were pretty close
to tournament teams last year. Oregon's depth will probably still be thin (particularly
in the circle), but barring significant injuries, I expect them to make the tournament
this year. Oregon State barely missing the tournament was a surprise, but I think
they rebound this year to make the tournament.
Remaining Pac-12 Opponents
at Utah (x3)
I think Utah could be better this year, but they lost a lot of their rotation,
so it wouldn't surprise me if they were just as bad this year (granted
they still stole a game from us at home).
Overall, another solid schedule, mixing challenging games both in and out of conference,
with tossup games, with hopefully surefire wins. In looking at the non-conference schedule as a whole,
I would say it is probably relatively comparable to last year's schedule (maybe a hair easier, given
we have substituted some tournament level mid majors such as Drake, BYU and Grand Canyon
for our contests against Northwestern and Michigan last year; those wins over LSU, Michigan
and Northwestern were big in terms of building our resume last year, so only having Tennessee as
a non-conference P5 opponent worries me a little bit in terms of name/prestige/cache.
Granted, we will face plenty good P5 competition in conference, so it probably won't matter too much.
All in all, this is definitely a tournament level schedule, but I am not certain it is a Top 16/Regional Host level
non-conference schedule. However, if we notch some good wins in conference, that gives a path toward
a national seed.
In terms of the non-conference, here is my breakdown of our opponents by tier:
Definite Tournament Teams
at Tennessee (at least one game)
Like last year's contest at LSU, this year's non-conference schedule is highlighted
by another tough road test in Knoxville.
Strong Tournament Contenders
at BYU
at Grand Canyon (x2)
Drake (x2)
Fresno State
vs. Weber State (x2)
Seattle (x2)
We have a lot of contests against strong mid major teams,
many of whom either made the NCAA tournament or strongly
contended for the NCAA tournament last year.
Drake lost their ace pitcher that led them to a #2 regional seed,
so I think they will take a sizable step back, but I think they will
contend in their conference for a tournament berth.
I expect Fresno State and BYU to be in the tournament at-large
conversation, and Weber State and Seattle were both AQ's last year
(with Seattle even being a #3 regional seed). Grand Canyon upset
then #1 Florida State at home in Phoenix, so that is not an easy
opener for the Card by any means.
Average Mid-Majors
Nevada (x3)
Hofstra (x2)
I am expecting a stronger performance from Hofstra this year than
last year, as previously the Pride have been a perennial tourney team/
in the at-large conversation.
Below Average Mid Majors
vs New Mexico (x2)
Pacific
Saint Francis Pennsylvania (x2)
Rhode Island (x2)
Toledo (at least one game)
East Tennessee State (at least one game)
at Saint Mary's (x2)
at Sacramento State (x2)
Santa Clara
We should hopefully win most, if not all of these games.
(12-12-2019, 06:05 PM)d4cohn Wrote: Here is my analysis/breakdown of our schedule in terms of what it might mean for this season:
Overall, another solid schedule, mixing challenging games both in and out of conference,
with tossup games, with hopefully surefire wins. In looking at the non-conference schedule as a whole,
I would say it is probably relatively comparable to last year's schedule (maybe a hair easier, given
we have substituted some tournament level mid majors such as Drake, BYU and Grand Canyon
for our contests against Northwestern and Michigan last year; those wins over LSU, Michigan
and Northwestern were big in terms of building our resume last year, so only having Tennessee as
a non-conference P5 opponent worries me a little bit in terms of name/prestige/cache.
Granted, we will face plenty good P5 competition in conference, so it probably won't matter too much.
All in all, this is definitely a tournament level schedule, but I am not certain it is a Top 16/Regional Host level
non-conference schedule. However, if we notch some good wins in conference, that gives a path toward
a national seed.
In terms of the non-conference, here is my breakdown of our opponents by tier:
Definite Tournament Teams
at Tennessee (at least one game)
Like last year's contest at LSU, this year's non-conference schedule is highlighted
by another tough road test in Knoxville.
Strong Tournament Contenders
at BYU
at Grand Canyon (x2)
Drake (x2)
Fresno State
vs. Weber State (x2)
Seattle (x2)
We have a lot of contests against strong mid major teams,
many of whom either made the NCAA tournament or strongly
contended for the NCAA tournament last year.
Drake lost their ace pitcher that led them to a #2 regional seed,
so I think they will take a sizable step back, but I think they will
contend in their conference for a tournament berth.
I expect Fresno State and BYU to be in the tournament at-large
conversation, and Weber State and Seattle were both AQ's last year
(with Seattle even being a #3 regional seed). Grand Canyon upset
then #1 Florida State at home in Phoenix, so that is not an easy
opener for the Card by any means.
Average Mid-Majors
Nevada (x3)
Hofstra (x2)
I am expecting a stronger performance from Hofstra this year than
last year, as previously the Pride have been a perennial tourney team/
in the at-large conversation.
Below Average Mid Majors
vs New Mexico (x2)
Pacific
Saint Francis Pennsylvania (x2)
Rhode Island (x2)
Toledo (at least one game)
East Tennessee State (at least one game)
at Saint Mary's (x2)
at Sacramento State (x2)
Santa Clara
We should hopefully win most, if not all of these games.
In conference, here is the breakdown of opponents by difficulty:
Definite National Seed
Arizona (x3)
at UCLA (x3)
Washington (x3)
Wins in any of these are resume-defining wins.
Likely NCAA Tournament Team/NCAA Tournament Contender
at Oregon (x3)
at Arizona State (x3)
Oregon State (x3)
Cal (x3)
ASU is probably the strongest team in this bunch, who could challenge
for a Top 16 National seed. Oregon and Oregon State were pretty close
to tournament teams last year. Oregon's depth will probably still be thin (particularly
in the circle), but barring significant injuries, I expect them to make the tournament
this year. Oregon State barely missing the tournament was a surprise, but I think
they rebound this year to make the tournament.
Remaining Pac-12 Opponents
at Utah (x3)
I think Utah could be better this year, but they lost a lot of their rotation,
so it wouldn't surprise me if they were just as bad this year (granted
they still stole a game from us at home).