[BostonCard]

I also don't think a 12 win conference champion has ever been left out.

BC

One year ago (2018-2019) Ohio State was left out of the playoff despite being 12-1 and Big Ten conference champion. In fact their final committee ranking was 6th (behind 11-2 SEC runner up Georgia which was ranked 5th). They then beat Washington in the Rose Bowl to finish 13-1.

Right!  Thanks for the correction; I feel silly.  They were left out in favor of a 12-0 Notre Dame team.  It would have been interesting to see what would have happened had Notre Dame not been undefeated; although as you point out their committee ranking was 6th, behind an 11-2 SEC runner-up, I wonder whether the committee would have had tOSU leapfrog Georgia had a playoff spot been on the line.

BC

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LSU won the SEC West, but imagine they lost a few times.  If Auburn won the SEC by going 11-2 with a loss to Oregon and a loss to some SEC school do you really think they would not be in the CFP?



I can hear it now...Oh, Oregon was the first game of the year...things are different now...they meet the eye test...to go 7-1 in the SEC is almost impossible....they beat the amazing SEC East winner... They have to be in the CFP.



BTW - If both Big12 and Pac12 champs had two losses?   Georgia would have gone.   That's for sure as they were #5 and Oregon was #6.   So we already know a 2 loss SEC runner-up can get in before a two loss Pac-12 champion.



The SEC does so much to make sure their conference has a number of teams with 0 losses or 1 loss. 

4 OOCs at home by most

FCS weekend before Rivalry weekend

Each team getting a specific "cross-division rival".  (Sorry Tennessee)



So we may never know, but I really doubt a 2 loss SEC champ would need to worry about the committee finding them a spot as long as no other SEC team had only 1 loss.

Some day this may become a testable hypothesis, though for the reasons you mention, a 2-loss SEC champ (with no other SEC teams having fewer losses) may be rare.  I think the specific situation you brought up (Auburn getting in this year after losing to Oregon and another SEC team), though, would be hard to justify given a head-to-head loss versus another team looking to get in.

BC

[BostonCard]

I also don't think a 12 win conference champion has ever been left out.

BC

One year ago (2018-2019) Ohio State was left out of the playoff despite being 12-1 and Big Ten conference champion. In fact their final committee ranking was 6th (behind 11-2 SEC runner up Georgia which was ranked 5th). They then beat Washington in the Rose Bowl to finish 13-1.

Right!  Thanks for the correction; I feel silly.  They were left out in favor of a 12-0 Notre Dame team.  It would have been interesting to see what would have happened had Notre Dame not been undefeated; although as you point out their committee ranking was 6th, behind an 11-2 SEC runner-up, I wonder whether the committee would have had tOSU leapfrog Georgia had a playoff spot been on the line.

BC

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LSU won the SEC West, but imagine they lost a few times.  If Auburn won the SEC by going 11-2 with a loss to Oregon and a loss to some SEC school do you really think they would not be in the CFP?



I can hear it now...Oh, Oregon was the first game of the year...things are different now...they meet the eye test...to go 7-1 in the SEC is almost impossible....they beat the amazing SEC East winner... They have to be in the CFP.



BTW - If both Big12 and Pac12 champs had two losses?   Georgia would have gone.   That's for sure as they were #5 and Oregon was #6.   So we already know a 2 loss SEC runner-up can get in before a two loss Pac-12 champion.



The SEC does so much to make sure their conference has a number of teams with 0 losses or 1 loss. 

4 OOCs at home by most

FCS weekend before Rivalry weekend

Each team getting a specific "cross-division rival".  (Sorry Tennessee)



So we may never know, but I really doubt a 2 loss SEC champ would need to worry about the committee finding them a spot as long as no other SEC team had only 1 loss.

Some day this may become a testable hypothesis, though for the reasons you mention, a 2-loss SEC champ (with no other SEC teams having fewer losses) may be rare.  I think the specific situation you brought up (Auburn getting in this year after losing to Oregon and another SEC team), though, would be hard to justify given a head-to-head loss versus another team looking to get in.

BC