01-02-2020, 04:16 PM
(01-02-2020, 02:11 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(01-02-2020, 01:45 PM)DC 86 Wrote: One year ago (2018-2019) Ohio State was left out of the playoff despite being 12-1 and Big Ten conference champion. In fact their final committee ranking was 6th (behind 11-2 SEC runner up Georgia which was ranked 5th).
Right! Thanks for the correction; I feel silly. They were left out in favor of a 12-0 Notre Dame team.
(01-02-2020, 01:03 PM)Farm93 Wrote: LSU won the SEC West, but imagine they lost a few times. If Auburn won the SEC by going 11-2 with a loss to Oregon and a loss to some SEC school do you really think they would not be in the CFP?
Some day this may become a testable hypothesis,
The "teams get into the playoff because of conference reputation" is certainly overplayed, and probably bunk overall, despite what one may imagine happening in various counter-factual situations.
It's pretty clear that for actually being in the playoff, sorting category 1 is being in a Power 5 conference (or und) and category 2 is number of losses.
Following that is less clear, but strength of schedule starts appearing.
It appears the committee is more willing to give an extra boost to strength of schedule, and actually allow it to overcome number of losses in some cases, for the lower rankings that are not making the playoff.
OSU last year was only a partial exception to the number of losses rule, and rather adds to the case that generic conference reputation doesn't matter much. The Big Ten was/is more highly regarded than the Big 12. They lost out to Oklahoma [rather than undefeated und] largely due to a really bad loss to Purdue and some close wins over poor teams.
Had OSU and Georgia been at 4/5 instead of 5/6 that might have ended up being the first case of a two-loss Power 5 team bumping a one-loss Power 5 team out of the playoff, but since that didn't actually happen it's only a partial exception.
Even 2017, where they let in two SEC conference teams neither of which won the SEC title, wasn't outside of this general ranking rubric. By the fewest losses rule the only other contender was Wisconsin which had a notably soft schedule that year, had also lost their conference championship game, and was only tied in losses with the two SEC teams.
The Pac 12 has never lost a bid to the playoffs because of any kind of lack of reputation, rather it keeps producing champions with multiple losses.
