01-02-2020, 06:18 PM
I wouldn't read too much into CFP rankings outside of the top 4.
I agree that most years, a one-loss Pac-12 champion will probably be ranked behind a one-loss SEC champion. It's not clear that would apply to any other conference, though. Although the ACC has always gotten a team in, it has been very top heavy, with either Florida State or Clemson head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, and never finishing with fewer than one loss. Both the Big-12 and Big Ten have had a one-loss conference champion left out (in the case of the Big-12, both Baylor and TCU were left out in 2014/15 behind one loss conference champions from the SEC, Pac-12, and Big Ten, though at the time the Big-12 did not have a conference championship; Ohio State was left out of the 2018/19 conference championship, but that year there were three undefeated teams, and it was passed over by the Big-12 conference champion, Oklahoma). This year would have been an interesting test case had Oregon not lost to ASU; it would have been a tough call between a one-loss Oklahoma and a one-loss Oregon.
The years where a Pac-12 champ fell behind a non-conference champion:
2015/16: 11-2 Stanford was behind 12-1 Iowa; this was later settled on the field
2017/18: 11-2 USC was behind 11-1 Alabama, 12-1 Wisconsin, and 10-3 Auburn, which is the one example of a Pac-12 team with more losses who won their conference being behind a team with fewer losses who didn't win their conference
2018/19: 10-3 Washington (9th in the CFP) was behind a bunch of teams, none with fewer than 2 losses. Of the teams with two losses, Georgia was 11-2 and Michigan was 10-2.
2019/20: 11-2 Oregon was behind 11-2 Georgia
In other conferences:
2016/17: 11-2 Penn State was behind 11-1 Ohio State; 10-2 Oklahoma was behind tOSU and 10-2 Michigan
2017/18: 11-2 Ohio State was behind 11-1 Alabama (as SC was)
2018/19: 12-1 Ohio State was behind 11-2 Georgia (the other example of a conference champion with 1 loss being behind a team with more losses who didn't win their championship)
BC
I agree that most years, a one-loss Pac-12 champion will probably be ranked behind a one-loss SEC champion. It's not clear that would apply to any other conference, though. Although the ACC has always gotten a team in, it has been very top heavy, with either Florida State or Clemson head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, and never finishing with fewer than one loss. Both the Big-12 and Big Ten have had a one-loss conference champion left out (in the case of the Big-12, both Baylor and TCU were left out in 2014/15 behind one loss conference champions from the SEC, Pac-12, and Big Ten, though at the time the Big-12 did not have a conference championship; Ohio State was left out of the 2018/19 conference championship, but that year there were three undefeated teams, and it was passed over by the Big-12 conference champion, Oklahoma). This year would have been an interesting test case had Oregon not lost to ASU; it would have been a tough call between a one-loss Oklahoma and a one-loss Oregon.
The years where a Pac-12 champ fell behind a non-conference champion:
2015/16: 11-2 Stanford was behind 12-1 Iowa; this was later settled on the field
2017/18: 11-2 USC was behind 11-1 Alabama, 12-1 Wisconsin, and 10-3 Auburn, which is the one example of a Pac-12 team with more losses who won their conference being behind a team with fewer losses who didn't win their conference
2018/19: 10-3 Washington (9th in the CFP) was behind a bunch of teams, none with fewer than 2 losses. Of the teams with two losses, Georgia was 11-2 and Michigan was 10-2.
2019/20: 11-2 Oregon was behind 11-2 Georgia
In other conferences:
2016/17: 11-2 Penn State was behind 11-1 Ohio State; 10-2 Oklahoma was behind tOSU and 10-2 Michigan
2017/18: 11-2 Ohio State was behind 11-1 Alabama (as SC was)
2018/19: 12-1 Ohio State was behind 11-2 Georgia (the other example of a conference champion with 1 loss being behind a team with more losses who didn't win their championship)
BC