[DC 86]

Our odds for winning the national title next year are at +10000, which implies a probability of just under 1%.  If we carry that over to the next 100 years, the implied probability of winning a national title in the next 100 years is 37%.

BC

SHouldn't the 100 year probability of a championship (assuming 1/101 chances in any season) be 63% (1 - .37)?

In any case, the implied probability of a national championship next year - assuming that the current odds are an accurate representation of likelihood - is lower, and thus the 100 year estimate is lower also.

+10,000 includes the casino's juice, which is usually massive on futures bets. Adding all the implied probabilities on a futures board usually adds up to anywhere from 125% to 200% (US casinos generally have much higher holds than offshore books).

If Stanford is listed at +10,000 (100-1) then it's safe to assume that the true odds once juice is carved out are on the order of 150-1 or thereabouts at best.

Therefore Stanford's true likelihood of winning the national championship next year are closer to 0.66%; however, carried over to the next 100 years the implied probability of winning a national title would still be approx. 49%.

Obviously there are too many variables to put much stock in any of these numbers, but my point is that 100-1 doesn't imply barely a slightly-less-than 1% implied probability because "juice" needs to be stripped out to arrive at the actual figure, however the 100 year projection still offers some hope depending on one's age.

Sorry Qwerty, I had some assumptions different when I first posted this.

[DC 86]

Our odds for winning the national title next year are at +10000, which implies a probability of just under 1%.  If we carry that over to the next 100 years, the implied probability of winning a national title in the next 100 years is 37%.

BC

SHouldn't the 100 year probability of a championship (assuming 1/101 chances in any season) be 63% (1 - .37)?

In any case, the implied probability of a national championship next year - assuming that the current odds are an accurate representation of likelihood - is lower, and thus the 100 year estimate is lower also.

+10,000 includes the casino's juice, which is usually massive on futures bets. Adding all the implied probabilities on a futures board usually adds up to anywhere from 125% to 200% (US casinos generally have much higher holds than offshore books).

If Stanford is listed at +10,000 (100-1) then it's safe to assume that the true odds once juice is carved out are on the order of 150-1 or thereabouts at best.

Therefore Stanford's true likelihood of winning the national championship next year are closer to 0.66%; however, carried over to the next 100 years the implied probability of winning a national title would still be approx. 49%.

Obviously there are too many variables to put much stock in any of these numbers, but my point is that 100-1 doesn't imply barely a slightly-less-than 1% implied probability because "juice" needs to be stripped out to arrive at the actual figure, however the 100 year projection still offers some hope depending on one's age.

Sorry Qwerty, I had some assumptions different when I first posted this.