[M T]

Geno won't do it this year - needs 21 18 wins with a max of 19 games remaining, 10 regular, 3 [conference] tourney, and possible 6 ... NCAA games.  Tara has the same set up, needing 16 13 wins [to tie]

Confirming: Per Wikipedia, Tara had 1067 before this year, while Geno had 1062.  Both have 18 wins this year (1085 vs 1080). Pat Summit's record is 1098.  So, 13 vs 18 wins to go to tie the record.

I say to ignore the record and look forward to Tara & Stanford to get 19 more games this season!   If they make 19 games, that's at least 7 post-season wins, meaning the record is tied even with 4 regular season losses.

I surely don't want to hope her 13th (#1098, tying Pat)  & 14th (#1099) wins are in significant NCAA games.  I want at least one of them at home in the first 2 rounds.

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Here I'm running the numbers, focusing on losses before the NCAA seedings & tourney... not predicting any more than I would account for possible outcomes of dice rolls.

NCAA RPI: 1 So Car.; 2 Oregon; 3 Louisville; 4 Iowa; 5 Stanford; 6 UCLA; 7 UConn; 8 MD; 9 Baylor;...13 OrSt
AP:  1 So Car; 2 Baylor; 3 Oregon; 4 UConn; 5 Louisville; 6 Stanford; 7 NC St; 8 UCLA; 9 MissSt; 10 OrSt; 19 ASU

If any of UCLA, Oregon, or Stanford play in the PAC-12 finals, that will be their 5th top-10 matchup in 13 games.  For Oregon State, it would be their 4th.  (Should ASU or Arizona gets there, it might be their 7th game against a top-10 team in 13 games!)

Prior to the PAC-12 tourney, relevant (current) top-10 match ups are:  Stanford vs (h)UCLA, (h)Oregon, (h)OrSt; UCLA vs (a)Stanford, (h)Oregon, (h)OrSt;  Oregon vs (a)UConn, (a)Stanford, (a) UCLA; Oregon State vs (a)Stanford, (a)UCLA;  UConn vs (h)Oregon, (a)So.Carolina.   This is not to say that the other games (ASU, etc) are easy; but they aren't a top-10 team.  Personally, I would not discount ASU or even Arizona.  And Stanford has to play Colorado again, this time at their place.

Any of those teams might lose as many as 4 games, just in top-10 matchups, plus any losses while a team blinks.  The most successful team might even lose two games.   Should one of those teams win out, I have to imagine they'd easily have #1 RPI.  I could conceive that a single loss and 4 wins against top-10 opponents might result in a #1 RPI.  Having a 3-2 record against top-10 teams ought to boost RPI.  A 2-2 record might also have a positive effect.

While too much to really hope for, if Stanford were to run the gauntlet undefeated (0 losses) through the PAC-12 tourney, the 13th win would be in Las Vegas (which would be all right by me!) with the 14th likely at home in the NCAA tourney.  (I surely hope we don't lose 2 more players as we did in the loss that shall not be named.)   If Stanford has 1, or even 2 losses (but get to final round of PAC12 tourney) and don't fall apart in the first 2 rounds of the NCAA tourney, the 13th win would be at Stanford.  If they lose more (which, unfortunately, is possible), the tying game would be in the regionals (or later).

If Stanford has 3 losses before the NCAA tourney, there is still a decent chance for Tara to catch or even pass Pat this year.  A #6 team should reasonably win at least 3 NCAA tournament games.

Should Stanford win only 9 games (4 losses, or 3 including a semi-final exit from the PAC-12 tournament) before the NCAA tourney, then Stanford would have to win regionals to get to 13 wins.  Certainly possible, but tough.   While hope may not be gone for 5 or even 6 losses before NCAAs, the team has to perform practically perfectly to get to 13 wins.  7 or more losses means the record lasts to next year, and Geno might get it before Tara.

You will hear the announcers say that the PAC-12 teams will be well honed for the NCAA tournament because of these games.  While I hope that physical injuries are non-existent, I have to wonder about the mental strain of so many important matches, with no real easy games to coast through.  Can the PAC-12 teams continue to be at their toughest for so many games?

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The regionals this year are at Portland(OR), Fort Wayne(IN), Greenville(SC), Dallas(TX).  I think Stanford would have to win out to have a prayer of playing at the closest (670 miles) venue.  Personally, I hope the NCAA will split the top several teams of the PAC-12 into different regionals (but my cynical side recognizes that East Coast basketball will want 2 of the top 4 PAC-12 teams to play in Portland.)

If UConn were to win all games up until the regional final (ie, beat Oregon & South Carolina), a regional final win would be one short of Pat Summit's record.  One loss in the regular season means the best Geno could do is tie with a national championship.  I wouldn't discount that.

I imagine the ESPN PR team is already lobbying for a 2 for 1 opportunity.  First a good chance of a game between UConn and Stanford where Tara might be within 1 (either over or under) the record, in a regional game.   Secondly, a pre-season tournament game next fall, where UConn (and, if things go badly for Stanford, perhaps Stanford) are trying to make history.  (I predict a tournament with UConn, Stanford, and Tennessee and ??).

So I think UConn will be aligned to play Stanford in the regional finals.  Baylor will likely be #1 in Dallas; So.Carolina in Greenville; likely Oregon in Portland.   If I were a betting man, I'd bet that UConn and Stanford (and Louisville) are headed to the Indiana regionals, almost no matter what games are won or lost by those teams.  Whether they will be aligned to meet in the regional semis or finals may depend upon their wins between now and when the NCAA announces the seedings.

While I of course hope for a Stanford national championship this year (and think such hope is not unreasonable, albeit a bit of a reach), I really am hoping that Tara gets win #1099 (and, hey, a nice round #1100 #1104 as well)  this year, I will be happy as long as she gets to #1098 to tie Pat Summit.  It will give her an off-season of recognition before Geno steps on her heels.

Stanford has been hot and cold.  They may have the heart to win it all, and the talent to do that maybe next year, but they've been depleted.  While the Oregon game may have been a punch in the gut, the Colorado game may have been the slap in the face that makes them bear down for their remaining games.

If I were to lay down a challenge for the team, it would be to keep Tara in front of Geno through next year.  That's a tall order.  But, they've done that so far this year.


P.S. If you were wondering who might coach longer than the other, there is less than a year's difference in their ages.  At this point, I'd have to guess that if either coaches one year longer than the other, that person will have the record.  I'd guess the individual variability of life's blessings and hurdles will determine who winds up with the record.  I truly do wish each coaches as long as he/she wants.

[M T]

Geno won't do it this year - needs 21 18 wins with a max of 19 games remaining, 10 regular, 3 [conference] tourney, and possible 6 ... NCAA games.  Tara has the same set up, needing 16 13 wins [to tie]

Confirming: Per Wikipedia, Tara had 1067 before this year, while Geno had 1062.  Both have 18 wins this year (1085 vs 1080). Pat Summit's record is 1098.  So, 13 vs 18 wins to go to tie the record.

I say to ignore the record and look forward to Tara & Stanford to get 19 more games this season!   If they make 19 games, that's at least 7 post-season wins, meaning the record is tied even with 4 regular season losses.

I surely don't want to hope her 13th (#1098, tying Pat)  & 14th (#1099) wins are in significant NCAA games.  I want at least one of them at home in the first 2 rounds.

---

Here I'm running the numbers, focusing on losses before the NCAA seedings & tourney... not predicting any more than I would account for possible outcomes of dice rolls.

NCAA RPI: 1 So Car.; 2 Oregon; 3 Louisville; 4 Iowa; 5 Stanford; 6 UCLA; 7 UConn; 8 MD; 9 Baylor;...13 OrSt
AP:  1 So Car; 2 Baylor; 3 Oregon; 4 UConn; 5 Louisville; 6 Stanford; 7 NC St; 8 UCLA; 9 MissSt; 10 OrSt; 19 ASU

If any of UCLA, Oregon, or Stanford play in the PAC-12 finals, that will be their 5th top-10 matchup in 13 games.  For Oregon State, it would be their 4th.  (Should ASU or Arizona gets there, it might be their 7th game against a top-10 team in 13 games!)

Prior to the PAC-12 tourney, relevant (current) top-10 match ups are:  Stanford vs (h)UCLA, (h)Oregon, (h)OrSt; UCLA vs (a)Stanford, (h)Oregon, (h)OrSt;  Oregon vs (a)UConn, (a)Stanford, (a) UCLA; Oregon State vs (a)Stanford, (a)UCLA;  UConn vs (h)Oregon, (a)So.Carolina.   This is not to say that the other games (ASU, etc) are easy; but they aren't a top-10 team.  Personally, I would not discount ASU or even Arizona.  And Stanford has to play Colorado again, this time at their place.

Any of those teams might lose as many as 4 games, just in top-10 matchups, plus any losses while a team blinks.  The most successful team might even lose two games.   Should one of those teams win out, I have to imagine they'd easily have #1 RPI.  I could conceive that a single loss and 4 wins against top-10 opponents might result in a #1 RPI.  Having a 3-2 record against top-10 teams ought to boost RPI.  A 2-2 record might also have a positive effect.

While too much to really hope for, if Stanford were to run the gauntlet undefeated (0 losses) through the PAC-12 tourney, the 13th win would be in Las Vegas (which would be all right by me!) with the 14th likely at home in the NCAA tourney.  (I surely hope we don't lose 2 more players as we did in the loss that shall not be named.)   If Stanford has 1, or even 2 losses (but get to final round of PAC12 tourney) and don't fall apart in the first 2 rounds of the NCAA tourney, the 13th win would be at Stanford.  If they lose more (which, unfortunately, is possible), the tying game would be in the regionals (or later).

If Stanford has 3 losses before the NCAA tourney, there is still a decent chance for Tara to catch or even pass Pat this year.  A #6 team should reasonably win at least 3 NCAA tournament games.

Should Stanford win only 9 games (4 losses, or 3 including a semi-final exit from the PAC-12 tournament) before the NCAA tourney, then Stanford would have to win regionals to get to 13 wins.  Certainly possible, but tough.   While hope may not be gone for 5 or even 6 losses before NCAAs, the team has to perform practically perfectly to get to 13 wins.  7 or more losses means the record lasts to next year, and Geno might get it before Tara.

You will hear the announcers say that the PAC-12 teams will be well honed for the NCAA tournament because of these games.  While I hope that physical injuries are non-existent, I have to wonder about the mental strain of so many important matches, with no real easy games to coast through.  Can the PAC-12 teams continue to be at their toughest for so many games?

---

The regionals this year are at Portland(OR), Fort Wayne(IN), Greenville(SC), Dallas(TX).  I think Stanford would have to win out to have a prayer of playing at the closest (670 miles) venue.  Personally, I hope the NCAA will split the top several teams of the PAC-12 into different regionals (but my cynical side recognizes that East Coast basketball will want 2 of the top 4 PAC-12 teams to play in Portland.)

If UConn were to win all games up until the regional final (ie, beat Oregon & South Carolina), a regional final win would be one short of Pat Summit's record.  One loss in the regular season means the best Geno could do is tie with a national championship.  I wouldn't discount that.

I imagine the ESPN PR team is already lobbying for a 2 for 1 opportunity.  First a good chance of a game between UConn and Stanford where Tara might be within 1 (either over or under) the record, in a regional game.   Secondly, a pre-season tournament game next fall, where UConn (and, if things go badly for Stanford, perhaps Stanford) are trying to make history.  (I predict a tournament with UConn, Stanford, and Tennessee and ??).

So I think UConn will be aligned to play Stanford in the regional finals.  Baylor will likely be #1 in Dallas; So.Carolina in Greenville; likely Oregon in Portland.   If I were a betting man, I'd bet that UConn and Stanford (and Louisville) are headed to the Indiana regionals, almost no matter what games are won or lost by those teams.  Whether they will be aligned to meet in the regional semis or finals may depend upon their wins between now and when the NCAA announces the seedings.

While I of course hope for a Stanford national championship this year (and think such hope is not unreasonable, albeit a bit of a reach), I really am hoping that Tara gets win #1099 (and, hey, a nice round #1100 #1104 as well)  this year, I will be happy as long as she gets to #1098 to tie Pat Summit.  It will give her an off-season of recognition before Geno steps on her heels.

Stanford has been hot and cold.  They may have the heart to win it all, and the talent to do that maybe next year, but they've been depleted.  While the Oregon game may have been a punch in the gut, the Colorado game may have been the slap in the face that makes them bear down for their remaining games.

If I were to lay down a challenge for the team, it would be to keep Tara in front of Geno through next year.  That's a tall order.  But, they've done that so far this year.


P.S. If you were wondering who might coach longer than the other, there is less than a year's difference in their ages.  At this point, I'd have to guess that if either coaches one year longer than the other, that person will have the record.  I'd guess the individual variability of life's blessings and hurdles will determine who winds up with the record.  I truly do wish each coaches as long as he/she wants.