With the home loss to UCLA our RPI drops to 11, Massey has us at 8.
This inside-the-Pac-12 bloodletting was expected and everyone in the Pac 12 has lost at least once to someone else in the Pac 12. That will continue--the only question is whether Oregon can win out. UCLA gets them at home, as do we.
Everything is still possible if we win out--but beating Oregon while short handed seems unlikely. Winning out except for Oregon would put us in a good place --at least 3rd and possibly 2nd depending on how UCLA does. But we have SC and Oregon State at home, and road trips to altitude and to the Arizona schools. Even Oregon had trouble and a loss going to the Arizona schools.
My most optimistic prediction would be that we go 5-2 the rest of the regular season, beginning with a win today. If we do that while beating Arizona and Oregon State we will lock in 3rd in the conference and avoid a potential semifinal game against Oregon. The pessimistic outlook is that we lose to one of those two schools or we do even worse and go 4-3 in the remaining regular season, and wind up no better than 4th in the league, giving us a semifinal match with Oregon.
Assuming that we do well enough to get to Oregon in the Pac 12 tournament and lose to it, that would leave us:
Optimist: 7-3 the rest of the way, resulting in a 27-6 record before the NCAAs. Then maybe a 2 or a 3 seed.
Pessimist: 5-4 the rest of the way, resulting in a 25-7 record before the NCAAs. Then maybe a 3 or a 4 seed.
With Geno playing creampuffs, every one of those losses cuts into Tara's 5 game lead over him in the race to catch Pat.
In the NCAAs, with at least a 4 seed, hopefully we get two home wins. Beyond that it is hard to say. Optimistically we get a third win and make it to the elite eight. Pessimistically we get a bad matchup and go home.
Optimist: final record 30-7, lose in elite eight.
Pessimist: final record 27-8, lose in sweet sixteen.
Tara's wins coming into this year: 1067.
Optimist: 1097 after this year.
Pessimist: 1094 after this year.
Pat Summit record: 1098
So close.
This inside-the-Pac-12 bloodletting was expected and everyone in the Pac 12 has lost at least once to someone else in the Pac 12. That will continue--the only question is whether Oregon can win out. UCLA gets them at home, as do we.
Everything is still possible if we win out--but beating Oregon while short handed seems unlikely. Winning out except for Oregon would put us in a good place --at least 3rd and possibly 2nd depending on how UCLA does. But we have SC and Oregon State at home, and road trips to altitude and to the Arizona schools. Even Oregon had trouble and a loss going to the Arizona schools.
My most optimistic prediction would be that we go 5-2 the rest of the regular season, beginning with a win today. If we do that while beating Arizona and Oregon State we will lock in 3rd in the conference and avoid a potential semifinal game against Oregon. The pessimistic outlook is that we lose to one of those two schools or we do even worse and go 4-3 in the remaining regular season, and wind up no better than 4th in the league, giving us a semifinal match with Oregon.
Assuming that we do well enough to get to Oregon in the Pac 12 tournament and lose to it, that would leave us:
Optimist: 7-3 the rest of the way, resulting in a 27-6 record before the NCAAs. Then maybe a 2 or a 3 seed.
Pessimist: 5-4 the rest of the way, resulting in a 25-7 record before the NCAAs. Then maybe a 3 or a 4 seed.
With Geno playing creampuffs, every one of those losses cuts into Tara's 5 game lead over him in the race to catch Pat.
In the NCAAs, with at least a 4 seed, hopefully we get two home wins. Beyond that it is hard to say. Optimistically we get a third win and make it to the elite eight. Pessimistically we get a bad matchup and go home.
Optimist: final record 30-7, lose in elite eight.
Pessimist: final record 27-8, lose in sweet sixteen.
Tara's wins coming into this year: 1067.
Optimist: 1097 after this year.
Pessimist: 1094 after this year.
Pat Summit record: 1098
So close.