[M T]

My most optimistic prediction would be that we go 5-2 the rest of the regular season, beginning with a win today.  If we do that while beating Arizona and Oregon State we will lock in 3rd in the conference and avoid a potential semifinal game against Oregon.  The pessimistic outlook is that we lose to one of those two schools or we do even worse and go 4-3 in the remaining regular season, and wind up no better than 4th in the league, giving us a semifinal match with Oregon. 



Tara's wins coming into this year: 1067. 

Optimist: 1097 after this year.

Pessimist: 1094 after this year.

Pat Summit record: 1098

So, your optimistic prediction is that we lose to Oregon State (that we already beat at their place) or to Arizona or ASU, as well as Oregon?   Then, continuing, you assume we lose to Oregon in the PAC-12 tourney.   On top of that, you figure we lose in the elite eight.  I could see that outcome, but it wouldn't be what I'd call optimistic!

With your pessimistic view of Stanford losing 3 games in the remainder of the conference season, I don't think you considered that might make Stanford 5th or even 6th (4 way tie for 3rd is possible among OSU, ASU, Arizona, Stanford with 5 losses).  That could balance out one of the losses with an extra win in the first day of the conference tourney.

To boil it down, your "optimist" expects 2 losses in the regular season (5-2 from Saturday), seeding of 3rd in the conf. tourney and losing the championship game (2-1), and losing in the elite eight (3-1).     The easiest way to get one more win is to only lose 1 more game in the regular season.  Next most realistic may be to get to the final four!

As I said in my earlier posting, I think the committee, under whatever pressure, is going to match up UConn & Stanford around that Elite Eight or maybe Sweet Sixteen game.

[M T]

My most optimistic prediction would be that we go 5-2 the rest of the regular season, beginning with a win today.  If we do that while beating Arizona and Oregon State we will lock in 3rd in the conference and avoid a potential semifinal game against Oregon.  The pessimistic outlook is that we lose to one of those two schools or we do even worse and go 4-3 in the remaining regular season, and wind up no better than 4th in the league, giving us a semifinal match with Oregon. 



Tara's wins coming into this year: 1067. 

Optimist: 1097 after this year.

Pessimist: 1094 after this year.

Pat Summit record: 1098

So, your optimistic prediction is that we lose to Oregon State (that we already beat at their place) or to Arizona or ASU, as well as Oregon?   Then, continuing, you assume we lose to Oregon in the PAC-12 tourney.   On top of that, you figure we lose in the elite eight.  I could see that outcome, but it wouldn't be what I'd call optimistic!

With your pessimistic view of Stanford losing 3 games in the remainder of the conference season, I don't think you considered that might make Stanford 5th or even 6th (4 way tie for 3rd is possible among OSU, ASU, Arizona, Stanford with 5 losses).  That could balance out one of the losses with an extra win in the first day of the conference tourney.

To boil it down, your "optimist" expects 2 losses in the regular season (5-2 from Saturday), seeding of 3rd in the conf. tourney and losing the championship game (2-1), and losing in the elite eight (3-1).     The easiest way to get one more win is to only lose 1 more game in the regular season.  Next most realistic may be to get to the final four!

As I said in my earlier posting, I think the committee, under whatever pressure, is going to match up UConn & Stanford around that Elite Eight or maybe Sweet Sixteen game.