(02-17-2020, 05:39 PM)M T Wrote: Right now, there are 3 top teams(including Oregon), and then a bunch of others, including Stanford, UCLA, Arizona, and Oregon State. If one of those last 4 wins out (through the PAC-12 tourney) excepting maybe 1 game against Oregon, that team could be a #1 team. If they lose all their games against the others in the top-15, then they'll be deep in the 20s or worse. Most likely, they'll be a mix of wins and loses with all of them being #2, #3, #4 seeds.That has been my fear ever since Haley Jones went down. But let's see if Oregon State can hold its halftime lead over UCLA.
Lest anyone feel more comfortable after reading that poll, I'll point out that (for whatever it is worth) RealTimeRPI has Stanford losing its last 3 games of the regular season, finishing 4th in the PAC-12, and aligned to play Oregon in the PAC-12 semis. If that were to occur, Pat Summit's record will survive to next year (and Geno might get it first), and Stanford would probably be a 3 seed at best in the NCAA tournament. We most critically need to win the game against Arizona.
(I'll note that AFIK, RealTimeRPI is blind to who is able to play for Stanford on any particular night. Those voting in the AP poll aren't.)
Frankly, I'd rank UCLA higher than Stanford, based on UCLA's win over Stanford. But there will be more to judge the PAC-12 teams on for each poll remaining this season!
If our goal is to get back to the final 4, then we want to avoid S Carolina, Baylor, and Oregon. We can avoid all of them if we get the 4th 1 seed OR if we get the 1st 2 seed. So I'd be happy if we could work our way up to overall 5. If we are overall 6 or 7 or 8 we have to beat one of those top 3 to get to the final four. If we are overall 4 or 5 we will have to beat a Louisville or UConn probably.
I think we could get that 5th slot even without beating Oregon in the regular season or in the tournament. But we would pretty much have to beat everyone else, and that is a VERY tall order. There are just so many tough games remaining--especially those very hostile venues in Arizona.
