02-23-2020, 04:05 PM
Today went about as well as we could possibly have hoped for.
2006 has it figured out.
Now, if we win tomorrow against Oregon, the sky is the limit, but assuming for the sake of argument that we lose......
Now also assume that Cal doesn't beat Arizona in the desert, and that UCLA wins its last two against the mountain schools at home....
Then:
Winning both in the desert guarantees us 2nd place.
Winning 1 game in the desert against either team keeps us ahead of both Arizona schools and guarantees 3rd place
Losing both in the desert would drop us behind both UCLA and Arizona into fourth place.
The likely first round opponents based on standings today in the Pac 12 tourney would be:
If 2nd place then I'm not sure whether it would the winner of a Utah or USC vs Washington State game. I think it could come down to whether Utah or SC wins when they play next weekend at SC. I'm going to guess SC
If 3rd place then it looks like the winner of an Oregon State vs. Washington game. Or most likely Oregon State for a third time--although last year Washington beat Oregon State in the Pac 12 tournament.
If 4th place then it looks like the winner of and Arizona State vs. Cal game. Most likely Arizona State, and just 5 days after playing them a moderate drive away in Tempe.
3rd place and 4th place look like bad matchups for us, because we don't want to play Oregon State a third time, and we don't want to play Arizona State in front of a de facto home crowd in Las Vegas. We really want to close strong and win at least 2/3.
2006 has it figured out.
Now, if we win tomorrow against Oregon, the sky is the limit, but assuming for the sake of argument that we lose......
Now also assume that Cal doesn't beat Arizona in the desert, and that UCLA wins its last two against the mountain schools at home....
Then:
Winning both in the desert guarantees us 2nd place.
Winning 1 game in the desert against either team keeps us ahead of both Arizona schools and guarantees 3rd place
Losing both in the desert would drop us behind both UCLA and Arizona into fourth place.
The likely first round opponents based on standings today in the Pac 12 tourney would be:
If 2nd place then I'm not sure whether it would the winner of a Utah or USC vs Washington State game. I think it could come down to whether Utah or SC wins when they play next weekend at SC. I'm going to guess SC
If 3rd place then it looks like the winner of an Oregon State vs. Washington game. Or most likely Oregon State for a third time--although last year Washington beat Oregon State in the Pac 12 tournament.
If 4th place then it looks like the winner of and Arizona State vs. Cal game. Most likely Arizona State, and just 5 days after playing them a moderate drive away in Tempe.
3rd place and 4th place look like bad matchups for us, because we don't want to play Oregon State a third time, and we don't want to play Arizona State in front of a de facto home crowd in Las Vegas. We really want to close strong and win at least 2/3.