[BostonCard]

Stanford is absolutely a bubble team. Somehow KenPom has them #34, but Sagarin has them at #59, one spot above UCLA.

To me, it's really simple. Must sweep Utah and Colorado at home and split in Oregon. That would give them a 6-1 record in last 7 games, something closer to how the team started the season.

Then they probably also must win one Pac-12 Tournament game. That would give them a 5-2 record in their last 7 games, a 9-9 conference record and 21-12 overall, good enough for NCAA resume. I personally don't think they will do this and will not make the NCAA field.

OF, I think your numbers are a bit off. Right now, with the WSU win, Stanford is 18-9(7-7). If they lose only to Oregon, they would be 21-10(10-8). Go 1-1 in the Tournament, they finish 22-11(11-9) winning 7 of the last 9. That is a little better. Maybe enough? Beating Colorado could be tough, but it is doable. A win over a #18 ranked opponent (even if they aren't #18 by the time we play them) should get us in. If we lose that game, it gets harder.

Thanks for catching that. Yes, 21-10 (10-8) would be the record if they sweep at home this week and split at Oregon. That and one tournament win will be enough to make the NCAA field. 

ASU, Oregon, Arizona and Colorado are locks. Stanford, UCLA, and USC are playing for one spot most likely. 

Stanford: Utah, Colorado @OSU, @ Oregon
USC: Arizona, ASU, UCLA
UCLA: ASU, Arizona, @USC

It is a fiction that there are a certain number of spots allocated to each conference and thus teams within a conference are battling it out amongst themselves.  All the bubble teams can play themselves in and they could all play themselves out.  Until you are at the point that a head to head game (say in the PAC-12 championship) is what determines whether a team is in or out, what UCLA and USC do matter as much as any other bubble team, and probably matter less than upsets in one bid conferences.

BC

[BostonCard]

Stanford is absolutely a bubble team. Somehow KenPom has them #34, but Sagarin has them at #59, one spot above UCLA.

To me, it's really simple. Must sweep Utah and Colorado at home and split in Oregon. That would give them a 6-1 record in last 7 games, something closer to how the team started the season.

Then they probably also must win one Pac-12 Tournament game. That would give them a 5-2 record in their last 7 games, a 9-9 conference record and 21-12 overall, good enough for NCAA resume. I personally don't think they will do this and will not make the NCAA field.

OF, I think your numbers are a bit off. Right now, with the WSU win, Stanford is 18-9(7-7). If they lose only to Oregon, they would be 21-10(10-8). Go 1-1 in the Tournament, they finish 22-11(11-9) winning 7 of the last 9. That is a little better. Maybe enough? Beating Colorado could be tough, but it is doable. A win over a #18 ranked opponent (even if they aren't #18 by the time we play them) should get us in. If we lose that game, it gets harder.

Thanks for catching that. Yes, 21-10 (10-8) would be the record if they sweep at home this week and split at Oregon. That and one tournament win will be enough to make the NCAA field. 

ASU, Oregon, Arizona and Colorado are locks. Stanford, UCLA, and USC are playing for one spot most likely. 

Stanford: Utah, Colorado @OSU, @ Oregon
USC: Arizona, ASU, UCLA
UCLA: ASU, Arizona, @USC

It is a fiction that there are a certain number of spots allocated to each conference and thus teams within a conference are battling it out amongst themselves.  All the bubble teams can play themselves in and they could all play themselves out.  Until you are at the point that a head to head game (say in the PAC-12 championship) is what determines whether a team is in or out, what UCLA and USC do matter as much as any other bubble team, and probably matter less than upsets in one bid conferences.

BC