[teejers1]

Thanks, @SamuelMcF, but I found the real thing at hoop-explorer.com.  This is my new favorite site on the internet :)

And it is exactly what I expected (and feared):


With the starting 5 on the court (Jones, Terry, Da Silva, Davis, Wills) we are +23.8 points per 100 possessions, which is outstanding.  All other lineups, including up to 4 starters, are +9.6 per 100 possessions.  So, subbing out a single starter makes us far worse. 

Individual net ratings per 100 possessions by player:

Davis: +15.3 on, +2.2 off, difference +13.1
Da Silva: +17.7 on, +2.9 off, difference +14.8
Wills: +17.1 on, +3.1 off, difference +14.0
Terry: +13.9 on, +8.6 off, difference +5.3 (?!)
Jones: +15.6 on, +5.1 off, difference +10.5
White: +6.3 on, +16.2 off, difference -9.9 (did not expect that)
Kisunas: +9.2 on, +14.1 off, difference -4.9
Delaire: +7.5 on, +16.3 off, difference -8.8
Keefe: +11.4 on, +13.1 off, difference -2.7

These are not adjusted for teammate effects, so take with extra salt.  If I get more time later, I will break this down by offense and defense.  If you hit the lineup analyzer button, you can see the performance of all the commonly used 5 person groupings.

These numbers are useful, but not terribly enlightening.  So many factors go into plus/minus (most notably, who else is on the floor).  If multiple subs are in for starters, then that crew, by definition, likely will do less well.  OTOH, if you could control for just one sub and rotate with each sub a 4-person group of starters, then you might get more useful data.  

I don't like to second-guess subbing by coaches because so many factors go into it (foul trouble, match-ups, fatigue of particular player on particular day, how well they practiced, etc.).  But I do have one criticism of Haase:  he should eschew having both Da Silva and Terry on the bench at the same time.  When both are on the bench, Stanford is lacking scorers, and the Cardinal seems to hit a lull.

Speaking of lulls, there were two big ones last night - scoring droughts (no baskets) of 5 minutes or so - one in each half.  The biggest buckets, imo, were the threes that broke those droughts:  one by White (1H); and one by Jones (?, 2H).  Stanford regained separation shortly thereafter.

[teejers1]

Thanks, @SamuelMcF, but I found the real thing at hoop-explorer.com.  This is my new favorite site on the internet :)

And it is exactly what I expected (and feared):


With the starting 5 on the court (Jones, Terry, Da Silva, Davis, Wills) we are +23.8 points per 100 possessions, which is outstanding.  All other lineups, including up to 4 starters, are +9.6 per 100 possessions.  So, subbing out a single starter makes us far worse. 

Individual net ratings per 100 possessions by player:

Davis: +15.3 on, +2.2 off, difference +13.1
Da Silva: +17.7 on, +2.9 off, difference +14.8
Wills: +17.1 on, +3.1 off, difference +14.0
Terry: +13.9 on, +8.6 off, difference +5.3 (?!)
Jones: +15.6 on, +5.1 off, difference +10.5
White: +6.3 on, +16.2 off, difference -9.9 (did not expect that)
Kisunas: +9.2 on, +14.1 off, difference -4.9
Delaire: +7.5 on, +16.3 off, difference -8.8
Keefe: +11.4 on, +13.1 off, difference -2.7

These are not adjusted for teammate effects, so take with extra salt.  If I get more time later, I will break this down by offense and defense.  If you hit the lineup analyzer button, you can see the performance of all the commonly used 5 person groupings.

These numbers are useful, but not terribly enlightening.  So many factors go into plus/minus (most notably, who else is on the floor).  If multiple subs are in for starters, then that crew, by definition, likely will do less well.  OTOH, if you could control for just one sub and rotate with each sub a 4-person group of starters, then you might get more useful data.  

I don't like to second-guess subbing by coaches because so many factors go into it (foul trouble, match-ups, fatigue of particular player on particular day, how well they practiced, etc.).  But I do have one criticism of Haase:  he should eschew having both Da Silva and Terry on the bench at the same time.  When both are on the bench, Stanford is lacking scorers, and the Cardinal seems to hit a lull.

Speaking of lulls, there were two big ones last night - scoring droughts (no baskets) of 5 minutes or so - one in each half.  The biggest buckets, imo, were the threes that broke those droughts:  one by White (1H); and one by Jones (?, 2H).  Stanford regained separation shortly thereafter.