03-12-2020, 11:01 AM
(This post was last modified: 03-12-2020, 11:12 AM by BostonCard.)
Teejers, remember that what we are seeing now is between 5 and 14 days behind what is going on out there, and with the shortage of tests, for every positive test, there are probably 4 hidden ones (based on the hospitalization and death rate).
The only way to respond to this pandemic is to "over-respond". China and Italy have had to implement a complete and total shutdown, so if we can't get on top of it immediately, that's the sort of response we are going to have to implement.
Here's a good description of why (I posted it on the main Covid thread):
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavir...d3d9cd99ca
His recommendations:
So the question becomes: What are the tradeoffs we could be making to lower the R? This is the menu that Italy has put in front of all of us:
The alternative is to "ride it out". Under standard epidemic modeling scenarios most of the US population eventually contracts Covid-19, 10's of millions of people are sick enough to require a hospitalization, maybe 10 - 20 million people require ICU care and a ventilator (that we don't have enough of) and millions of people die.
Social distancing works. It flattens the peak and reduces the totals, dramatically. But for social distancing to work, it has to be enforced, and that means that even seemingly trivial stuff that is not important has to be cancelled or postponed.
BC
PS One other thing. Rudy was the first diagnosed. A second Jazz player has since tested positive. It is safe to assume that the entire Jazz team has been exposed and most will test positive sometime in the next two weeks. Recent Jazz opponents have been exposed. Over the next few weeks more players will turn positive. And if you do nothing, the entire league will be infected.
BC
[tweet]https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538?s=20[/tweet]
If the prospect of orthopods and pathologists taking care of you in the ICU doesn't scare the s#it out of you, I don't know what would. Keep inmind that two weeks ago Northern Italy was looking like Washington looks now.
BC
The only way to respond to this pandemic is to "over-respond". China and Italy have had to implement a complete and total shutdown, so if we can't get on top of it immediately, that's the sort of response we are going to have to implement.
Here's a good description of why (I posted it on the main Covid thread):
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavir...d3d9cd99ca
His recommendations:
So the question becomes: What are the tradeoffs we could be making to lower the R? This is the menu that Italy has put in front of all of us:
- Nobody can enter or exit lockdown areas, unless there are proven family or work reasons.
- Movement inside the areas is to be avoided, unless they are justified for urgent personal or work reasons and can’t be postponed.
- People with symptoms (respiratory infection and fever) are “highly recommended” to remain home.
- Standard time off for healthcare workers is suspended
- Closure of all educational establishments (schools, universities…), gyms, museums, ski stations, cultural and social centers, swimming pools, and theaters.
- Bars and restaurants have limited opening times from 6am to 6pm, with at least one meter (~3 feet) distance between people.
- All pubs and clubs must close.
- All commercial activity must keep a distance of one meter between customers. Those that can’t make it happen must close. Temples can remain open as long as they can guarantee this distance.
- Family and friends hospital visits are limited
- Work meetings must be postponed. Work from home must be encouraged.
- All sports events and competitions, public or private, are canceled. Important events can be held under closed doors.
The alternative is to "ride it out". Under standard epidemic modeling scenarios most of the US population eventually contracts Covid-19, 10's of millions of people are sick enough to require a hospitalization, maybe 10 - 20 million people require ICU care and a ventilator (that we don't have enough of) and millions of people die.
Social distancing works. It flattens the peak and reduces the totals, dramatically. But for social distancing to work, it has to be enforced, and that means that even seemingly trivial stuff that is not important has to be cancelled or postponed.
BC
PS One other thing. Rudy was the first diagnosed. A second Jazz player has since tested positive. It is safe to assume that the entire Jazz team has been exposed and most will test positive sometime in the next two weeks. Recent Jazz opponents have been exposed. Over the next few weeks more players will turn positive. And if you do nothing, the entire league will be infected.
BC
[tweet]https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538?s=20[/tweet]
If the prospect of orthopods and pathologists taking care of you in the ICU doesn't scare the s#it out of you, I don't know what would. Keep inmind that two weeks ago Northern Italy was looking like Washington looks now.
BC