[BostonCard]

Germany has 17 dead, 67 recovered, and 7188 active cases.
If no one else gets the disease, their death rate is between 0.2% and 99.1%, unless you can tell the future.

I see your point, though by the same measure, all the statistics at this point are similarly marred and irrelevant, right? Why even look at them?

Isn't this always the case.  Even with the benefit of hindsight, we will always have issues like misdiagnoses in statistics.  That doesn't mean that they are, by definition, invalid.  You just have to take the limitations of what you are measuring into account, and you have to ask yourself if measurement errors account for your observations.  So, what are the possible reasons for Germany's apparent lower mortality?

1) Germany's healthcare system is somehow better equipped to treat patients with Covid-19.  Reasons may include the healthcare system being intrinsically better equipped to handle the epidemic or that, so far, it has not become overwhelmed, or that they have learned something from other countries and are applying it systemically.

2) Germany's population is somehow better able to withstand the pandemic.  The biggest risk factor for death right now appears to be age, and Germany is not all that much younger than other countries in the pandemic.  Or, they are somehow more able to shield their vulnerable populations.  I find that explanation a bit doubtful.

3) Either the deaths attributed to Covid-19 are an underestimate or other countries have an undercount of total cases.

4) Deaths in Germany are lagging.

Germany isn't the only country with an apparently low death rate.  There have been 3 deaths in Norway out of 1437 cases (0.2%), Austria has 4 deaths out of 1332 cases (0.3%), Portugal has reported one death out of 448 cases (0.2%), Malaysia has 2 deaths in 673 cases (0.3%), and Brazil has 1 death in 301 cases (0.3%).  For most of these, it is an issue of small numbers.  If two more people in Brazil die in the next day, you would get up to 1%.

I think at the end of the day we may never know, but a lot of people will study the question and try to come to conclusions, but I think the issue is hard to tease out at this point of the pandemic.

BC

[BostonCard]

Germany has 17 dead, 67 recovered, and 7188 active cases.
If no one else gets the disease, their death rate is between 0.2% and 99.1%, unless you can tell the future.

I see your point, though by the same measure, all the statistics at this point are similarly marred and irrelevant, right? Why even look at them?

Isn't this always the case.  Even with the benefit of hindsight, we will always have issues like misdiagnoses in statistics.  That doesn't mean that they are, by definition, invalid.  You just have to take the limitations of what you are measuring into account, and you have to ask yourself if measurement errors account for your observations.  So, what are the possible reasons for Germany's apparent lower mortality?

1) Germany's healthcare system is somehow better equipped to treat patients with Covid-19.  Reasons may include the healthcare system being intrinsically better equipped to handle the epidemic or that, so far, it has not become overwhelmed, or that they have learned something from other countries and are applying it systemically.

2) Germany's population is somehow better able to withstand the pandemic.  The biggest risk factor for death right now appears to be age, and Germany is not all that much younger than other countries in the pandemic.  Or, they are somehow more able to shield their vulnerable populations.  I find that explanation a bit doubtful.

3) Either the deaths attributed to Covid-19 are an underestimate or other countries have an undercount of total cases.

4) Deaths in Germany are lagging.

Germany isn't the only country with an apparently low death rate.  There have been 3 deaths in Norway out of 1437 cases (0.2%), Austria has 4 deaths out of 1332 cases (0.3%), Portugal has reported one death out of 448 cases (0.2%), Malaysia has 2 deaths in 673 cases (0.3%), and Brazil has 1 death in 301 cases (0.3%).  For most of these, it is an issue of small numbers.  If two more people in Brazil die in the next day, you would get up to 1%.

I think at the end of the day we may never know, but a lot of people will study the question and try to come to conclusions, but I think the issue is hard to tease out at this point of the pandemic.

BC