03-17-2020, 05:59 PM
From this study in Singapore:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fu...le/2762688
I think one thing to take into account is that people with symptoms are (hopefully) more likely to self-quarantine and not go to work so they may be more likely to transmit the virus, but I think we will generally find that patients with symptoms shed more virus than patients who are infected but pre-symptomatic.
The way I look at it, the probability of a transmission (between infected and healthy) is proportional to the probability of an interaction between them, the intensity of the interaction between them, and the quantity of virus being shed. The first two factors are likely to be higher for asymptomatic infected people than patients with symptoms; the third one is likely to be higher for a patient with symptoms than someone who is asymptomatic.
BC
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fu...le/2762688
Quote:In this study, viral load in nasopharyngeal samples from patients with COVID-19 peaked within the first few days after symptom onset before declining.
I think one thing to take into account is that people with symptoms are (hopefully) more likely to self-quarantine and not go to work so they may be more likely to transmit the virus, but I think we will generally find that patients with symptoms shed more virus than patients who are infected but pre-symptomatic.
The way I look at it, the probability of a transmission (between infected and healthy) is proportional to the probability of an interaction between them, the intensity of the interaction between them, and the quantity of virus being shed. The first two factors are likely to be higher for asymptomatic infected people than patients with symptoms; the third one is likely to be higher for a patient with symptoms than someone who is asymptomatic.
BC