[SamuelMcF]

Dawkins
2009: 52 (CBI Semifinals)
2010: 106
2011: 102
2012: 40 (NIT champs)
2013: 48 (NIT 2nd round)
2014: 34 (NCAA Sweet 16)
2015: 39 (NIT champs)
2016: 101

Haase
2017: 102
2018: 87
2019: 112
2020: 43

Given that this year was Haase's best year *by far* at Stanford, I think it would be irresponsible to fire him now. But I also agree with SamuelMcF: Stanford must make the NCAA tournament next year (if there is college basketball in 2020-21).

Quick amendment here:

Haase
2017: 102
2018: 87 (NIT 2nd round)
2019: 112
2020: 43 (borderline NIT/NCAA, but probably the former)

So far the similarities between Haase and Dawkins aren't encouraging. However, it appears the biggest "sin" Dawkins committed was not making the tourney with THREE teams that at least appeared capable of it by their ranking (a tourney of 64 teams should have the #39, 40, and 48 ranked teams in it, don't you think?), and not even making the NIT with #52. Really?!

Also of note is KenPom's "luck" metric, defined as "a measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky)." This year's team was ranked #330, one of the unluckiest teams in the entire country.

Bottom line: basically all the pieces from the nation's #43 team come back, along with a few frosh who should contribute (or at the very least, provide better depth than 2 walk-ons and an injured player). The team's "bad luck" should experience some form of regression to the mean. Any coach who wants to keep his job MUST make the tourney given this favorable scenario. And dare I say it, there's really no reason it shouldn't be the highest-ranked Stanford team of the past dozen years.

[SamuelMcF]

Dawkins
2009: 52 (CBI Semifinals)
2010: 106
2011: 102
2012: 40 (NIT champs)
2013: 48 (NIT 2nd round)
2014: 34 (NCAA Sweet 16)
2015: 39 (NIT champs)
2016: 101

Haase
2017: 102
2018: 87
2019: 112
2020: 43

Given that this year was Haase's best year *by far* at Stanford, I think it would be irresponsible to fire him now. But I also agree with SamuelMcF: Stanford must make the NCAA tournament next year (if there is college basketball in 2020-21).

Quick amendment here:

Haase
2017: 102
2018: 87 (NIT 2nd round)
2019: 112
2020: 43 (borderline NIT/NCAA, but probably the former)

So far the similarities between Haase and Dawkins aren't encouraging. However, it appears the biggest "sin" Dawkins committed was not making the tourney with THREE teams that at least appeared capable of it by their ranking (a tourney of 64 teams should have the #39, 40, and 48 ranked teams in it, don't you think?), and not even making the NIT with #52. Really?!

Also of note is KenPom's "luck" metric, defined as "a measure of the deviation between a team’s actual winning percentage and what one would expect from its game-by-game efficiencies. Essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do will be viewed as lucky (or unlucky)." This year's team was ranked #330, one of the unluckiest teams in the entire country.

Bottom line: basically all the pieces from the nation's #43 team come back, along with a few frosh who should contribute (or at the very least, provide better depth than 2 walk-ons and an injured player). The team's "bad luck" should experience some form of regression to the mean. Any coach who wants to keep his job MUST make the tourney given this favorable scenario. And dare I say it, there's really no reason it shouldn't be the highest-ranked Stanford team of the past dozen years.