[Farm93]

Quick question, as California ends it’s first week of shelter in place, I see little change in the data. There are lots of variables here, the most important being the incubation period but also iincreasing compliance and delayed test availability skewing reporting.

So ... When should we see the leading edge of data movement?  When will we know if this is making an impact or if adjustments should be made?

Testing will change dramatically over the next 4 weeks, so known cases will be an awful metric.
Hospitals will be near capacity and that will alter the admission policies.   So hospitalizations will be a bad metric too.
Same would be true for number of patients in ICUs.
If that all happens deaths won't be the best metric either, since a greater percentage of those with the virus will die if the healthcare system is really beyond capacity.

Still, given all of those expected changes the best indicator will be the ultimate endpoint.   COVID-19 deaths.
First milestone will be a slowing of the weekly death rate.
If that happens then the health care system is likely treating a great percentage of the sick patients or the number of sick patients is slowing down.

[Farm93]

Quick question, as California ends it’s first week of shelter in place, I see little change in the data. There are lots of variables here, the most important being the incubation period but also iincreasing compliance and delayed test availability skewing reporting.

So ... When should we see the leading edge of data movement?  When will we know if this is making an impact or if adjustments should be made?

Testing will change dramatically over the next 4 weeks, so known cases will be an awful metric.
Hospitals will be near capacity and that will alter the admission policies.   So hospitalizations will be a bad metric too.
Same would be true for number of patients in ICUs.
If that all happens deaths won't be the best metric either, since a greater percentage of those with the virus will die if the healthcare system is really beyond capacity.

Still, given all of those expected changes the best indicator will be the ultimate endpoint.   COVID-19 deaths.
First milestone will be a slowing of the weekly death rate.
If that happens then the health care system is likely treating a great percentage of the sick patients or the number of sick patients is slowing down.