03-21-2020, 08:00 AM
Your question goes to the more immediate term rebound, but we also have to think medium-term (i.e. in 2-18 months out while we wait for a widespread vaccine.)
In my mind, the two best things we could do besides testing, tracing, and isolation is:
1. Get a serology test to market - unlike a vaccine, this doesn't need to go through clinical trials, and researchers at Mount Sinai produced one several days ago and are shipping it out to other labs:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/NickKristof/status/1240329111748448256?s=20[/tweet]
Here's the tweet from the research announcing the paper explaining their creation of such a test:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1240432285184405505?s=20[/tweet]
2. Confirm no possibility of reinfection. Thus far I've seen mixed answers to this question, but it seems like the trend in research is reaching the conclusion that reinfection is not possible without the virus mutating first. (Those with MD/immunology backgrounds please clarify if I'm misspeaking?)
See here for why this matters:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1240689939030790144?s=20[/tweet]
Once we can confirm no possibility of rapid reinfection and then be able to identify who has SARS-COV-2 antibodies (i.e., those who were exposed to SARS-COV-2 and have either recovered or were asymptomatic and outside the window of being contagious), those individuals can return to normal life with no need to shelter in place, etc., because they will be both immune from becoming infected and therefore also would not be able to transmit the virus to others through shedding. (They could still do so through a handshake in which they are carrying live virus, etc.)
This would be the safest and easiest way for people to resume normal life. In theory, this was the UK's herd immunity strategy before the UK realized (a day later and a dollar short) that without spreading the curve, herd immunity requires culling a fair chunk of the herd in the process.
In my mind, the two best things we could do besides testing, tracing, and isolation is:
1. Get a serology test to market - unlike a vaccine, this doesn't need to go through clinical trials, and researchers at Mount Sinai produced one several days ago and are shipping it out to other labs:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/NickKristof/status/1240329111748448256?s=20[/tweet]
Here's the tweet from the research announcing the paper explaining their creation of such a test:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1240432285184405505?s=20[/tweet]
2. Confirm no possibility of reinfection. Thus far I've seen mixed answers to this question, but it seems like the trend in research is reaching the conclusion that reinfection is not possible without the virus mutating first. (Those with MD/immunology backgrounds please clarify if I'm misspeaking?)
See here for why this matters:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1240689939030790144?s=20[/tweet]
Once we can confirm no possibility of rapid reinfection and then be able to identify who has SARS-COV-2 antibodies (i.e., those who were exposed to SARS-COV-2 and have either recovered or were asymptomatic and outside the window of being contagious), those individuals can return to normal life with no need to shelter in place, etc., because they will be both immune from becoming infected and therefore also would not be able to transmit the virus to others through shedding. (They could still do so through a handshake in which they are carrying live virus, etc.)
This would be the safest and easiest way for people to resume normal life. In theory, this was the UK's herd immunity strategy before the UK realized (a day later and a dollar short) that without spreading the curve, herd immunity requires culling a fair chunk of the herd in the process.