03-23-2020, 10:54 AM
I see three flaws in this Levitt guy's assessment
1. Was his 80,000 case prediction for China a number of cases reported, or actual number of cases that would exist?
I don't trust China's numbers much at all. No way would they only be 80,000 if reported accurately.
2. The notion of appropriate social distancing varies by location.
China was locking people in houses and not allowing anyone out at all. Italy's first effort was to tell people to stay home but they could still go out as long as they were 6ft apart. That didn't work well, so Italy went even further.
3. Sure, we'll be "fine" and eventually it will pass, but what is the definition of fine?
Is it 100k dead? 500k dead? 1 million dead? Is it 10% unemployment? Is it 2% inflation? 5%?
1. Was his 80,000 case prediction for China a number of cases reported, or actual number of cases that would exist?
I don't trust China's numbers much at all. No way would they only be 80,000 if reported accurately.
2. The notion of appropriate social distancing varies by location.
China was locking people in houses and not allowing anyone out at all. Italy's first effort was to tell people to stay home but they could still go out as long as they were 6ft apart. That didn't work well, so Italy went even further.
3. Sure, we'll be "fine" and eventually it will pass, but what is the definition of fine?
Is it 100k dead? 500k dead? 1 million dead? Is it 10% unemployment? Is it 2% inflation? 5%?