We should also be wary of any models that require optimistic assumptions about CFRs and don't also incorporate other loss of life associated with overrun hospitals. There is lots of good reason to think that once hospital systems get overrun, a lot of non-COVID-19-infected individuals are also put at higher risk of death. See these unfortunate stories, for example:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Mtneedle/status/1242489534513807361?s=20[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/DellAnnaLuca/status/1242298460251910144?s=20[/tweet]
This thread is also very helpful in clarifying why our assumptions about loss of life associated with the virus may be faulty, because we are assuming that the reported data is an accurate picture of the virus's impact:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/DellAnnaLuca/status/1242298444716228608?s=20[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Mtneedle/status/1242489534513807361?s=20[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/DellAnnaLuca/status/1242298460251910144?s=20[/tweet]
This thread is also very helpful in clarifying why our assumptions about loss of life associated with the virus may be faulty, because we are assuming that the reported data is an accurate picture of the virus's impact:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/DellAnnaLuca/status/1242298444716228608?s=20[/tweet]