03-24-2020, 04:05 PM
If the virus was given free reign (like the experiment currently under way in Florida), the resulting curve for the number of cases would be logistic (s-shaped). As, say, 50-60-70% of people get infected, herd immunity would reduce the spread, and there would just be fewer people to get infected. So the rate slows down.
These exponential projections are really only accurate for the first half of the population. In fact, I think exponential growth ceases and switches to geometric(or maybe something else? can't recall now) around the 1/3 of population.
Anyway, don't go projecting too far in the future.
These exponential projections are really only accurate for the first half of the population. In fact, I think exponential growth ceases and switches to geometric(or maybe something else? can't recall now) around the 1/3 of population.
Anyway, don't go projecting too far in the future.
