03-24-2020, 08:14 PM
On number accuracy, Italy’s top health official said he believes they likely have 10x the cases reported. Given how many more people China has than Italy, their numbers are truly unbelievably small, without even accounting for a 10x underreporting of them. China had its first reported case in December and did nothing to stop spread for six weeks. Knowing what we know about the RO of SARS-CoV-2, and how much people were traveling, it seems dubious China had fewer cases than th U.S. will soon have.