03-25-2020, 03:53 AM
That Andy Slavitt thread is everything. And it basically confirms why I created this one.
If 100 people are shopping and just one person is an asymptomatic virus carrier, and that person infects a cashier not wearing a mask, and that cashier infects 20 people in a 6 hour shift for 3 days before showing symptoms...
There are now 60 people infecting their entire household. Let’s call it 2 per household on average. That would be 120. Say there are 10 such grocery stores in each state. And this event happens 7 times over a month in all 50 states. This alone adds 420,000 infections in a month. We know these numbers are way small compared to reality.
The WA story is instructive. Andrew Cuomo is acting like NY is somehow a pioneer when the reality is WA was ahead of this before any other state and took the first early actions to shut things down and add capacity, certainly before NY did. WA appears to have bought some time, but the Slavitt thread indicates even their actions only bought time. They didn’t stop spread enough to keep them from facing being overwhelmed. WA has upped its ask to shelter in place to a legal order as a result. To me, based on what we have observed worldwide, this is the only way to slow spread so it doesn’t overwhelm. CA appears to be having some success slowing spread because it too took action faster than NY, but only 700 tests had been performed in Santa Clara county in total as of March 23, so it is still unclear what the numbers are and what it’s 350 reported cases means. Is there a wave still coming, or has growth really slowed to a ripple?
Congress operating on assumption 2,000,000 will die is quite something considering we are only at less than 1,000 deaths now.
If 100 people are shopping and just one person is an asymptomatic virus carrier, and that person infects a cashier not wearing a mask, and that cashier infects 20 people in a 6 hour shift for 3 days before showing symptoms...
There are now 60 people infecting their entire household. Let’s call it 2 per household on average. That would be 120. Say there are 10 such grocery stores in each state. And this event happens 7 times over a month in all 50 states. This alone adds 420,000 infections in a month. We know these numbers are way small compared to reality.
The WA story is instructive. Andrew Cuomo is acting like NY is somehow a pioneer when the reality is WA was ahead of this before any other state and took the first early actions to shut things down and add capacity, certainly before NY did. WA appears to have bought some time, but the Slavitt thread indicates even their actions only bought time. They didn’t stop spread enough to keep them from facing being overwhelmed. WA has upped its ask to shelter in place to a legal order as a result. To me, based on what we have observed worldwide, this is the only way to slow spread so it doesn’t overwhelm. CA appears to be having some success slowing spread because it too took action faster than NY, but only 700 tests had been performed in Santa Clara county in total as of March 23, so it is still unclear what the numbers are and what it’s 350 reported cases means. Is there a wave still coming, or has growth really slowed to a ripple?
Congress operating on assumption 2,000,000 will die is quite something considering we are only at less than 1,000 deaths now.