[BostonCard]

That Andy Slavitt thread is everything. And it basically confirms why I created this one.

If 100 people are shopping and just one person is an asymptomatic virus carrier, and that person infects a cashier not wearing a mask, and that cashier infects 20 people in a 6 hour shift for 3 days before showing symptoms...

It is worth noting that most transmissions don't work that way.  As infectious as SARS-CoV is, it isn't measels and generally casual contact is not enough to transmit the virus.  You actually need sustained (30 min or longer) contact within 6 feet.  So generally speaking, a cashier is not going to infect 20 people per 6 hour shift for three days.

There are of course exceptions, and there are some well-documented "super spreaders", including the guy at the Biogen conference who infected about 100 other people.  But that is the exception.  Remember, the R0 for this virus (average number of healthy people infected by an infected person) is between 2 and 3, which means once you account for the superspreaders, most people will only infect the people they are in closest contact with (mostly household contacts).

BC

[BostonCard]

That Andy Slavitt thread is everything. And it basically confirms why I created this one.

If 100 people are shopping and just one person is an asymptomatic virus carrier, and that person infects a cashier not wearing a mask, and that cashier infects 20 people in a 6 hour shift for 3 days before showing symptoms...

It is worth noting that most transmissions don't work that way.  As infectious as SARS-CoV is, it isn't measels and generally casual contact is not enough to transmit the virus.  You actually need sustained (30 min or longer) contact within 6 feet.  So generally speaking, a cashier is not going to infect 20 people per 6 hour shift for three days.

There are of course exceptions, and there are some well-documented "super spreaders", including the guy at the Biogen conference who infected about 100 other people.  But that is the exception.  Remember, the R0 for this virus (average number of healthy people infected by an infected person) is between 2 and 3, which means once you account for the superspreaders, most people will only infect the people they are in closest contact with (mostly household contacts).

BC