03-25-2020, 08:20 PM
(03-25-2020, 07:46 PM)M T Wrote: The bad news is that SCC is still finding just 12% of the expected number of symptomatic cases, based on hospitalizations.
My impression was that ~20% of symptomatic cases required hospitalization. With 137 hospitalizations, you'd expect 685 total cases, and they've found 459 (about 2/3). Based on deaths and assuming a naive CFR of 2%, you'd expect about 850 cases, of which they have found 459 (a little over half). These are, of course, estimates, but they don't suggest a massive undercount of cases.
BC
