03-25-2020, 10:04 PM
(03-25-2020, 08:20 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(03-25-2020, 07:46 PM)M T Wrote: The bad news is that SCC is still finding just 12% of the expected number of symptomatic cases, based on hospitalizations.
My impression was that ~20% of symptomatic cases required hospitalization. With 137 hospitalizations, you'd expect 685 total cases, and they've found 459 (about 2/3). Based on deaths and assuming a naive CFR of 2%, you'd expect about 850 cases, of which they have found 459 (a little over half). These are, of course, estimates, but they don't suggest a massive undercount of cases.
BC
You're absolutely right. I screwed up. (I reloaded the data from the website into a spreadsheet, but I had swapped columns so the wrong numbers went into the calculation.)
Using the correct data, and as BC calculated, today's confirmed cases are 67% of the estimate of symptomatic cases from hospitalizations. Personally, I'd stay away from estimating the symptomatic cases from the deaths because of the uncertainty of the demographics involved, and the relatively small number of deaths.
That percentage has been noisy but does seem to be coming up. 67% is the highest percentage reported so far. SCC may be getting through the log jam of testing.
SCC is now posting the age decades of the confirmed cases.
Los Altos reported its second case from retirement/rehab facilities (1 in each of two).
