[burger]

Thanks for sharing. While tragic it would be remarkable if the United States escaped with 'only' 81,000 deaths (38k-162k highlighted range). 

Not to be maudlin, but I wonder how many additional deaths by suicide (and other factors) that will occur because of layoffs.  Our company will begin them soon, and they will cut very deeply.

It turns out that economic downturns do not cause large numbers of excess deaths.  During the 08-09 recession, mortality rates in the US actually declined: https://www.npr.org/2018/01/09/576669311...ion-deaths

We find that in areas where the unemployment rate is growing faster, mortality rates decline faster. So during the Great Recession in the U.S., we saw increases in the unemployment rate of about 4-5 percentage points, so that translates to about 50,000 to 60,000 fewer deaths per year, the same order of magnitude as the number of people who die from influenza and pneumonia every year.

This is true back to the recessions of the 70s.  Why?

When the economy is worse, people have less money to spend. They may go out and have unhealthy meals less often. They may smoke less or drink less. They may drive less. That's kind of what people have in mind when they're thinking about why increases in unemployment are linked to decreases in mortality.

This is true back to the Great Depression, in fact: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/us/po...ssion.html

There are more suicides during economic downturns, but this is offset by lower mortality from other causes.

[burger]

Thanks for sharing. While tragic it would be remarkable if the United States escaped with 'only' 81,000 deaths (38k-162k highlighted range). 

Not to be maudlin, but I wonder how many additional deaths by suicide (and other factors) that will occur because of layoffs.  Our company will begin them soon, and they will cut very deeply.

It turns out that economic downturns do not cause large numbers of excess deaths.  During the 08-09 recession, mortality rates in the US actually declined: https://www.npr.org/2018/01/09/576669311...ion-deaths

We find that in areas where the unemployment rate is growing faster, mortality rates decline faster. So during the Great Recession in the U.S., we saw increases in the unemployment rate of about 4-5 percentage points, so that translates to about 50,000 to 60,000 fewer deaths per year, the same order of magnitude as the number of people who die from influenza and pneumonia every year.

This is true back to the recessions of the 70s.  Why?

When the economy is worse, people have less money to spend. They may go out and have unhealthy meals less often. They may smoke less or drink less. They may drive less. That's kind of what people have in mind when they're thinking about why increases in unemployment are linked to decreases in mortality.

This is true back to the Great Depression, in fact: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/us/po...ssion.html

There are more suicides during economic downturns, but this is offset by lower mortality from other causes.