[BostonCard]

Unless China is hiding cases, this is good news.  This means that this virus can be defeated with many fewer deaths than predicted by many "experts."  I find the China numbers suspect, however.

BC, what are the odds that China is hiding cases, do you suspect?

Yes, I think the probability that China is hiding cases is virtually 100%, especially if reports that local political officials are being told they will be punished if cases arise are true.  If you incentivize someone to hide cases, that's what they will do.

On the other hand, it is also clear that China is relaxing its lockdown.  They have emptied the special coronavirus hospitals. So, the totality of the data does point to a waning epidemic. The number of cases is almost certainly higher than reported, but it also clearly has gone down from the peak.

BC

[BostonCard]

Unless China is hiding cases, this is good news.  This means that this virus can be defeated with many fewer deaths than predicted by many "experts."  I find the China numbers suspect, however.

BC, what are the odds that China is hiding cases, do you suspect?

Yes, I think the probability that China is hiding cases is virtually 100%, especially if reports that local political officials are being told they will be punished if cases arise are true.  If you incentivize someone to hide cases, that's what they will do.

On the other hand, it is also clear that China is relaxing its lockdown.  They have emptied the special coronavirus hospitals. So, the totality of the data does point to a waning epidemic. The number of cases is almost certainly higher than reported, but it also clearly has gone down from the peak.

BC