[BostonCard]

I think a variant of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle stands; the act of estimating the severity of the outbreak affects the outbreak.  That is, the worse the estimates of the number of sick and dead are, the stronger the measures taken to avert that outcome.  The more moderate the estimate is, the less likely the measures will be to be taken, which puts things at risk for a worse outbreak.

Also, "all models are wrong, some models are useful" - George Box

BC

[BostonCard]

I think a variant of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle stands; the act of estimating the severity of the outbreak affects the outbreak.  That is, the worse the estimates of the number of sick and dead are, the stronger the measures taken to avert that outcome.  The more moderate the estimate is, the less likely the measures will be to be taken, which puts things at risk for a worse outbreak.

Also, "all models are wrong, some models are useful" - George Box

BC