[JustAnotherFan]

Italy numbers are in for March 27:

March 21: +6,557 - 793 Dead
March 22: +5,560 - 651 Dead
March 23: +4,790 -  602 Dead
March 24: +5,249 - 743 Dead
March 25: +5,210 - 683 Dead
March 26: +6,203 - 712 Dead

March 27: +5,909 - 919 Dead

OK, we do appear to have evidence the case growth has absolutely stabilized. The death numbers are quite something. Even with no new cases and no new deaths, Italy's CFR will be at least 10%. Then the question becomes the case definition and how big the denominator of cases should be?

If Italy's health officials believe there are 10x more cases than reported, the CFR would go down to 1%. So what do we count as a case? Do we count all positive tests?  Just those who have been admitted to a hospital or otherwise expressed the most severe symptoms, like high fever and lung infection, and tested positive?
  

But let's not forget that there appears to be more COVID deaths than reported in some places, as well.

[JustAnotherFan]

Italy numbers are in for March 27:

March 21: +6,557 - 793 Dead
March 22: +5,560 - 651 Dead
March 23: +4,790 -  602 Dead
March 24: +5,249 - 743 Dead
March 25: +5,210 - 683 Dead
March 26: +6,203 - 712 Dead

March 27: +5,909 - 919 Dead

OK, we do appear to have evidence the case growth has absolutely stabilized. The death numbers are quite something. Even with no new cases and no new deaths, Italy's CFR will be at least 10%. Then the question becomes the case definition and how big the denominator of cases should be?

If Italy's health officials believe there are 10x more cases than reported, the CFR would go down to 1%. So what do we count as a case? Do we count all positive tests?  Just those who have been admitted to a hospital or otherwise expressed the most severe symptoms, like high fever and lung infection, and tested positive?
  

But let's not forget that there appears to be more COVID deaths than reported in some places, as well.