03-27-2020, 10:48 AM
I saw a news report that said the City of San Jose predicted the 2,000 death number.
San Jose has 1,000,000 people. An 80% infection rate with a 2% CFR would mean 16,000 deaths, so even 1% would be 8,000. The 2,000 was the best case scenario with social distancing working really well. I know everyone is trying to make sense of inconsistent and unverified data, but 2,000 seems way too low to me based on my understanding of the lethality and transmission intensity of this virus.
That said, Santa Clara County put out a statement in response saying it doesn't stand by the San Jose number and is developing its own projections.
San Jose has 1,000,000 people. An 80% infection rate with a 2% CFR would mean 16,000 deaths, so even 1% would be 8,000. The 2,000 was the best case scenario with social distancing working really well. I know everyone is trying to make sense of inconsistent and unverified data, but 2,000 seems way too low to me based on my understanding of the lethality and transmission intensity of this virus.
That said, Santa Clara County put out a statement in response saying it doesn't stand by the San Jose number and is developing its own projections.